QUOTE (stevesliva @ May 7 2020, 09:19 AM)
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6 years and the subsurface was still warming up? How long until equilibrium?
'Equilibrium' is not a straightforward concept here. The basic issue is the propagation of a surface disturbance (and for the principal goal of HP3, heat flow, all solar effects - diurnal, seasonal, etc. - are 'disturbances') into a conductive medium : this is a depth- and time-dependent effect.
Basically the e-folding propagation distance is (kappa * tau)^0.5, where kappa is the thermal diffusivity (typically 1E-7 to 1E-6 m^2/s for regoliths, or most materials) and tau is the time in seconds. You can assess the relevance of this length scale, by substituting how long it takes a hot potato to cool down from some initial condition, or a pea, or an asteroid...
Anyway, the reason HP3 needs to pull the sensors down to 3-5m is to get below the seasonal (annual) heat wave (tau~7E7s). Note that surface disturbances with a longer timescale will propagate deeper, and could influence the interpretation of the temperature gradient into a geothermal heat flux. I wrote a paper (Icarus, 2015, I think) showing that if the Little Ice Age on Earth (200-1000 yrs, tau ~ 6E9-3E10s) were due to a change in solar constant, there might be a measureable change in the Mars subsurface temperature gradient at the depths accessible to HP3 (and down to some tens of meters). There is a LIA signal in Greenland ice cap temperature profiles. Confidently attributing a measurement on Mars to such an effect would be a challenge (you'd be better off on the moon, I guess). [NB there is some evidence, notably the weaker climatological signatures in the terrestrial southern hemisphere, that the temporal association of the LIA with the Maunder Minimum in sunspots, and thus a possible reduced solar constant, is coincidental, and that the LIA was caused by e.g. volcanic effects]
Anyway, if HP3 does get going and gets down to 3m+ depth, the near-surface temperature changes due to any albedo effects by soft-landing propulsion will not matter, they will not have had time to propagate down.