QUOTE (JRehling @ Jul 15 2015, 08:40 PM)
A collision between an impactor and Pluto requires that two things be in the same place at the same time. A capture scenario would require that three things be in the same place at the same time. To a decent approximation, the probability of the latter would be the square of the probability of the former. Not very likely.
The third "thing" just has to be a moon of one of the other two things already in a capture scenario, doesn't it? Since it seems that a lot of small objects can have moons in the asteroid and kuiper belts, I don't think it's
that much less likely that Pluto could pass close to a pair of small objects rather than just a single one.
You say it's not very likely, but don't we think it already happened with Neptune capturing Triton?
It seems to me that the team have already decided beforehand that Charon must have formed in a giant impact, and I'm not terribly comfortable with that since I think that kind of conclusion can only be reached after looking at all the data - I don't see how they can be so sure of that from distant observations alone. I think we're really looking at two hypotheses here:
1) Pluto was hit by another object and Charon (and the other small moons?) formed from the debris. This happened long enough ago that there is no evidence for the impact on the surfaces of Pluto or Charon. Tidal despinning circularised the orbit and altered the surfaces of the two worlds before they locked with eachother.
2) Pluto captured Charon from another body that it passed close to. This happened long enough ago that the orbit circularised and Charon locked to Pluto. Tidal despinning altered the surfaces of the two worlds before they locked with eachother.
I think the only major issue with the second hypothesis is how the other moons fit in. Are they leftovers from smaller impacts on Pluto that happened afterwards? Are they also captured bodies (Kerberos seems different from the other small moons at least). But either way, the trick now is to look at all the data and figure out which one is the more valid hypothesis.
Have they pinned down the exact orbital eccentricities and inclinations of all the moons? If not, they should be able to from the data they've got from the approach and flyby.