QUOTE (ollopa @ Feb 18 2021, 07:48 PM)
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The question is: what do you really care about? Mafic floor material? Delta material? If your rover could die tomorrow, what would you pick? And where would you go?
QUOTE (ollopa @ Feb 18 2021, 08:04 PM)
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So: if your mission is to collect delta material, why would you take a sharp left when it's (putatively) right in front of you? Sorry: this arose at a meeting last month and I'm still puzzled!
The thinking is going to be different here from other missions. Since it has a mission to collect a suite of samples to be collected and sent off to Earth, you have to assume your rover's good for its warranty and do what you can to get your sample suite. So in this case the mindset is primarily "where can I get to and what can I collect before getting myself somewhere where the Sample Retrieval Rover can pick everything up?"
To speculate on the path a bit with my geology hat, I would guess that the "Channel Islands" bluffs are deemed to be too far out of the way relative to the value they would add to the sample suite. If they do go it's probably because someone made an extremely good argument that those bluffs have a much higher chance of biosignature preservation potential than the delta rocks that they'll see by driving west. Otherwise I think we'll probably see Percy go NW, and sample the mafic and etched floor units along the way. (Both of these are a pretty high return priority, the mafic floor unit because it's a tiepoint for geomorphological surface dating, and the etched floor unit because it'll provide information on lake chemistry.) If there is a detour, it'll probably be to that crater to its north. Then they're really close to connecting up with a pre-planned traverse. It's worth noting that the JPL traverse map that Phil posted was developed for an operations training program, not a hard-and-fast plan. I suspect they'll probably stick somewhat closely to that route since it reduces duplicated work on feasibility. But I do expect there were be all types of changes made as the orbital data that traverse was developed around gets ground-truthed.