This is my wild guess: sol 960.

Sol 920

Sol 980 is my guess.

Sol 900

Bob Shaw

Eventually. She gets there when she gets there.

--Bill

Sol 920. That's 100m per week, one more purgatory, and 20 days of science stops.

But then I didn't win the Deep Impact - guess impact crater size - either.

I'm guessing Sol 800 for When Oppy gets to the base of the rim. I have no prediction for how long it will take to climb the rim. I'm guessing that there will be no purgatories, and no lengthy science stops from here to there.

My wild guess, sol 915

S1K



Doug

902

random guess: 855

Here's the group's collected judgement since the pool reopened on 17 March:

mean 903.9
sd 59.0
max 1036
75%ile 920
median 900
25%ile 876
min 800

Feeling wishy-washy , let me split the mean and median and claim SOL 902.

Sorry Dan, didn't mean to tread on your number. I'll take 904 instead.

I don't think I've been the median at anything before, ever. That's worrying, that is.

Bob Shaw

I once met a happy medium. In fact she was the most cheerful fortune teller I ever met.

It seems not to be taken yet, so... 1000

Chris

Sorry - that's mine with 'S1K' (like Y2k, but for Mars Rovers )

Doug

Ok, 999 then

Chris

Hmmm. I'd read that as Sol 1024 for your prediction.

Very good! Indeed, 11/10!

Bob Shaw

that's odd, i read it as the condition that Oppy would be in

Hmmmm....
Sol 900!

You took my number, Chris!

OK, I guess I have to back up one and say Sol 998. I have in my head that we'll make it to Victoria, and at the moment we begin to take the panorama of all panoramas, the S1K bug will wipe out the flash memory and that will be the end of that...

-the other Doug

You want we should share?

Bob Shaw

Sol 987.

- because I like it's shape

Works for me
Stephen

Sol 1066

-- Pertinax

Sol 875

866 (if it hasn't already been taken)

Ah! The chance to be immortalized in the UMSF Hall of Fame.

Hmmm in that case, I'll go with Sol 876.

Sol 969

I like the symmetry

Going an average of 15 m/sol for an distance (not straight) of around 2,000 from Payson to the Northern rim of Victoria. It is 150 sols from now (767 sol), then my bet would be 917, but, but, I feel that it is almost sure, Oppy will have another wheel breakdown and it will be dragging as an valiant until reaching Victoria, then I will add another 30 more days to 917 and the final result would be 947 sol, that is September 28, 2006.

Hope my favorite number has no matching!

Rodolfo

Put me down for 969.

I will guess Sol 933, I like that it will be 9/3.

I say sol 1024, because I like powers of 2.

In these circonstances, I modify my predict : Sol 1003, because we had pass Sol 103 since a long time ( in refer to my nikname).

I am optimistic for once and end up with the 900's guys, so let my bet be for sol 911, and hope for no emergency calls from the rover.

Sol 947 for me.

Call me a hopeless optimist....Sol 1237!

I used the scientific method of measuring with my comb and it's exactly one comb length to victoria on the Sol 766 route map, I then measured back one comb length which took me to Sol 412 so I knew one comb =354 Sols and added it to 766 to get Sol 1124 how can it be wrong.


Roy F

Oppy experience indicates it will take longer than expected due to glitches, declining power, etc.

I say Sol 1024.

(pssst! Could someone tell hendric he picked the same sol as marsloon?)

Oops, I just noticed I took the same as Rodolfo.
So, I change for sol 948.

-- Rakhir

Darn. MaxSt already took sol 920. I'll go for sol 921. But I think sol 920 is it!

Hey, ToSeek - I picked Sol 875 last August...

I noticed a lot of confusion on what sols where picked.

I went threw the posts and put them in order of pick.
Lots of doubles as you can see.


I got the first column for 1st pick. If I noticed any changes I added it to the second column.

????? <if you see the question mark, I was not sure on choice.


Feel free to change pick or add new ones.

I will change them as I get them.



PS Yes I was bored!

My prediction: Sol 1111 (if it's not already taken)

I'm afraid that Oppy is going to experience a serious hardware/wheel breakdown (similar to what happened to Spirit) sometime before it reaches Victoria ... So she will have to cover the remaining distance after the breakdown in a slow/dragging 10-meters-per-day kind of fashion ... BUT we will get there finally

I'll go for 1014

(10-14 being a prowler report)

(unfortunately 10-24, assignment completed, has gone)

September 4th, 2006: Labor Day weekend press uninspired news media headline something like this:
"NASA's Mars Rover Opportunity perched at the edge of a two-footbawl-field-sized crater".

Updated Mar 24th....

Picks...

I never picked 1024. My first and last pick was 800. Note that was the date getting to the edge of the ejecta blanket. I have no prediction about whether that material can be navigated by the rover.