July, the 7th.
Because it is my birthday and I want a nice, deep gift...
Don't know what sol it is...

Ustrax:

No!

Look what you did with the last Abyss we let you play with - you lost, it, didn't you? No more deep holes in the ground for *you*! You're probably expecting us to believe that 'somebody else must have left it there' when poor little Opportunity falls in! Ha!

Bob Shaw

What i'm seeing? Is it right?

>> 674 meters in 36 sols??

I'm right on the money (for now)!

Think so.
A straight line from sol 758 position to sol 794's on my route map measures 698m.

The starting sol was 758 when Oppy left the Erebus "highest" rim (very eroded, indeed it is about one meter height).

About the distance. Two last week are estimated until the official JPL post the distance numbers. Initially, I estimated that the straight line distance between the Erebus and Victoria's rim was 2,200 meters as a reference. The distance was measured with the help of the scale distance on the picture.

However, the transversed distance will be longer than the straight line by some tenths meters since the Oppy will sometime transverse diagonally between ripples during its trip toward to Victoria crater.

Rodolfo

nice to see you back, Ustrax !

and keep dreaming your dreams and legends. don't be discouraged by your failed Ultreya Abyss prediction It has always been the uncertain dreams & legends that drive all the real great discoveries ...
Let's think about Columbus who dreamed his dream of circling the globe to reach India: We owe the discovery of a whole new continent to this dream

Not only that but, iirc, the distances posted on the status reports take into account all kind of manouvers e.g. end-of-drive turns, back and forward moves to avoid obstacles.



Victoria... Abyss?

875 ? Uh oh. Hey, Oppie, look at the nice outcrop in the foreground;
http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportuni...VNP2389R2M1.JPG
that's got to be worth going back to look at for, oh I don't know, 25 sols or so
Steve

Actually 27 sols would be much better.

Looking at Tesheiner's Route Map and the 1526 meters or so still to travel, we have a good idea what its like to travel over the etched area of the route, but we really don't know what awaits us, what 400 m out from VC when we cross over from the "known" soil to the unknown on the "ramp" (not sure if its a ramp) up to the edge of VC.

Yes, I am aware of this. Oppy has been driving fairly very straight with very fews turns around or any kind avoidance maneouver. So, the miss-calculated distance would be small. Not yet I am able to measure the distance with pixels/meters. Not yet I have mastered it. Anyway, I will try it in sometime soon.

Rodolfo

Oh, Oppy doesn't need to wait until the last 400m to find "unknown" terrain.
Following the future (hypotetical) path on my route map there is a section of bigger dunes starting at some 160m SSE from sol 794 position and ending (?) at a big outcrop 420m SSE again from the current position.

Click to view attachment

WRT the ejecta blanket (those last 400m up to the crater rim) I *think* (read "hope") that terrain will be similar to Endurance surroundings.

Edit: Changed picture to include what I think is the local high point.

I suspect that the larger ripples are due to orographic effects-- we've just crossed the topographic high and are descending to Victoria and we get changes in the wind downwind of that high area. We also have a darker tone of this area, which implies a change in composition, which may or may not be due to the change in the wind. Oppy needs to get to that "mini-Erebus highway" and get a close look at the bedrock.

--Bill

Similar thing as when approaching Erebus rim (before the detour); the dunes were getting bigger due to the slope change created at the rim. Will we see another Elephant dune, or even bigger one?

About crossing a high point, I did some quick calculations based on the vertical profiles posted some time ago (here: http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.p...indpost&p=48507) and the local high point seems to be still ~100m ahead.
See previous edited post.

Let me have it! Let me have it!
I promise I'll keep this one safe...
Pleeaase!...


Nirgal, I never felt discouraged by Ultreya, it's abyss, or the inexistence of one...

I hope you're correct, the "bigger dune" patches on either side of Tesheiner's proposed blue route look vaguely like ancient buried craters to me. In the absence of outcrops, I am concerned that the going might be treacherous even between the ripples.
I'm probably wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Oppy just keep trending east to avoid this area entirely.
Steve

Me too.
But that eastern route isn't free of tricks. First of all, it would mean a *lot* of ripple crossings with the potential consequence of being on another purgatory-like situation. Second, they would find another "big dunes" area when turning south again after the eastern detour.

It's funny how even reaching Victoria seemed like wishful thinking, and now I am a little upset at the prospect that Victoria Abyss will be Opportunity's Grand Finale. But what an ending!



"We'll always have Ultreya...."

I see another path, which is continuing the same straight line and few ripples crossing due to the ripple forks shape up to the latitude of VC and then turn to East. That way is easier but the MER team might be interested to visit at determined sites for geology science investigations purposes.

Rodolfo

Doug, make 'em stop! (There's gotta be a rule about this somewhere...)

New update at sol 800. Oppy has delayed 1 day since the sol 794.

___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date 877.1 Sol ---> July 9
___________________________________________________


Rodolfo

An article from today's Space.com: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/0604...ers_update.html

"It is full speed ahead to the south," Squyres reported. The power situation for Opportunity is much better than it is for Spirit, largely because this rover at Meridiani Planum is much closer to the equator. The robot can be driven an hour and a half or two hours each day, he said.

Oppy has the average speed of 5 - 10 cms / sec, per sol, Oppy can advance from the minimum: 9 (5cms/sec for 30 minutes) meters to maximum: 72 meters (10 cms/sec for 2 hours). The average would be 36 meters/sol.

"We’re also really getting the hang of driving in this terrain," Squyres added. At present, Opportunity is less than 5,000 feet (1.5 kilometers) from the rim of Victoria Crater, and making good progress daily. This feature is an enormous depression, measuring a half-mile (800 meters) in diameter.

Rodolfo

New update. The Opportunity advancement toward VC has slowed a little comparing to the last update at Sol 800.



Rodolfo

Only a Sol and a half from the ideal date.

I think that Oppy has arrived another very interesting zone and as everybody are shouting to smell roses (gravel) and visiting one of the biggest sand ripples on the way to the VC. Then, the transverse will be slowing down even further but after passing that zone, the speed average/sol will pick up again when Oppy approaches the relatively flat eject rim zone of VC. Speeding up and down! it is a fun bet

Rodolfo

Did anyone picked up 873?...

In order of number of sols:

600 deglr6328
650 OWW
663 djellison
680 gpurcell
721 Cugel
747 Redstone
748 MichaelT
777 paxdan
800 antoniseb
801 avkillick
820 mhoward
842 MahFL
855 remcook
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
876 imran
884 helvick
887 Marz
888 marswiggle
890 AndyG
891 garybeau
897 SFJCody
900 stevo
900 Bob Shaw
902 ElkGroveDan
904 Steve
911 Myran
915 bergadder
917 David S.
920 MaxSt
921 monty python
933 Mizarkey
934 atomoid
935 climber
940 Toma B
942 Michael Capobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars loon
973 jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 imipak
998 dvandorn
999 chris
1000 general
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 um3k
1024 marsman
1036 alan
1066 Pertinax
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 hendric
1237 nprev


Michael

Thank you Michael!

If Ustrax made a pull, then is not late for me!
Here my projection: Sol 927

Marco:

No, I think Phil is still ahead!

Bob Shaw

Oppy has advanced 43.8% of way between Payson and VC. The following matrix is the new update for the sol 814.



Analysis. The Oppy has lowerd a bit its daily average speed from 17.7
to 17.2 and the outlook VC arrival as pushed a little up to July 17 from
July 14.
___________________________________________________

(*) Claim, the numbers does not guarantee to be precise but a fondy
estimate.

(**) Phil, there is much way to jog, keep up your health fitness!

Rodolfo

36 Mars sols is about 37 Earth days, right, so I imagine we will have another period or two of restricted sols before reaching Victoria, assuming no stops (like Corner Crater). Not that I'm close to being right, and I hope I'm way too pessimistic at Sol 1014!

If they play it tactical, they'll be sitting on the rim on the day the next mission extension gets approved. I Don't know when that will be, but having to make a guess, Sol 950 seems reasonable.

New update from Sol 821



Oppy is rushing even faster than previous week. Lowered four days of its previous outlook arrival. Now, Oppy is around the half distance between Erebus Payson and VC.

Keep trucking!

Rodolfo

Some news at space.com;

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/06051...vers_update.htm

...nothing especially new, but this is an interesting comment from Mr Squyres, on Victoria:

[snip]
“We are closing in ... we’ve got only about a kilometer to go now,” said Steve Squyres [...] “Feel free to work out your own guess at an estimated time of arrival based on our recent progress…but I’m not making any predictions! Mars has fooled us too many times before,"...
[/snip]




So Steve sits out this sweepstake, but perhaps he (or JPL) should be pencilled in as honorary mascot for "Team FarSide" over on the other threads

LOL - no fool he

Doug

Arrival on the 10th of July.

my birthday.

jvandriel

I wondered before and now they seemingly going even faster, could it be that they be aiming for one arrival at Victoria on July 4?

Well, why not? They've missed their chance at the perfect arrival day.

Tomorrow is Victoria Day here in Canada.

Brian

Mine's on the 7th...

Can't recall - did we ever precisely define what "arrival" means? Does it mean sitting on the ledge? How close to the edge? What Sol shall we use as a benchmark to define "arrival" at Endurance, so that we can use similar criteria for arrival at Victoria?

Doug came up with a good one here

Mine is 9th!!!

So...Who got the 8th?...

And the rest of you guys? What's your birthday? (Maybe it is better to do this on a Chit Chat new topic...)


Toma B was born on the 1st of July...Is this a crab conspiracy?!!!

Doug got December's 23rd...

I think we should bow to the wisdom of the actual MER drivers - they'll announce 'arrival day', never fear!

Bob Shaw

I have two suggestions,

a ) first image of any portion of the dunes inside Victoria or

b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim (since it's clear there is none on the "slopes")

"a" is a great idea, "b" is terrible. IMHO

mines July 29th, someone at JPL was forcasting arrival in late July