I'll go 973

OK, update mine to 1138, in honor of George Lucas' first movie: THX 1138

942 sounds good to me.

[/quote]
That' an easy one !
Take launch date of Spirit and Oppy 1006 and 0707; add them = 1707. Divide by 2 = 854
Difference between actual sol 773 and 854 is 854-773 = 81. Now, You just add it to 854....and
SOL 935 is my bet
Climber

What kind of crazy math are you using to get 1006 and 0707 to add up to 1707?

Update March 28..

Feel free to point out any mistakes I made. I will gladly change them.

(Note There are still a few with the same picks!) The list goes in order of who picked the number first.

Given that there's a couple of unfilled rows there, I'll have 890, please.

Andy

I deduced a few taxes without mentioning it. So, I stay with SOL 935

I delurk just to take SOL 917

In order of number of sols:

600 deglr6328
650 OWW
663 djellison
680 gpurcell
721 Cugel
747 Redstone
748 MichaelT
777 paxdan
800 antoniseb
801 avkillick
820 mhoward
842 MahFL
855 remcook
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
876 imran
884 helvick
887 Marz
888 marswiggle
890 AndyG
891 garybeau
897 SFJCody
900 stevo
900 Bob Shaw
902 ElkGroveDan
904 Steve
911 Myran
915 bergadder
917 David S.
920 MaxSt
920 monty python
933 Mizarkey
934 atomoid
935 climber
942 Michael Capobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars loon
973 jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 imipak
998 dvandorn
999 chris
1000 general
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 um3k
1024 marsman
1036 alan
1066 Pertinax
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 hendric
1237 nprev

Michaelc

So, if today March 28 is SOL 774, then Labor Day (Sept 4th) should be:
SOL 934
I'm thinking there will be two relatively short distractions but Oppy will make it to VC by this date to keep the press release date.

Me 1013

Hmmm... I thought we had all been given the option to re-select, since the long wait at Purgatory II had invalidated our former selection criteria. On that basis, I selected Sol 998.

Y'all please update your lists accordingly...

-the other Doug

I'll pick 958 since all my other carefully calculated and deliberated sols were all taken :-)

Airbag

Thats not a problem, when I get home from work I can do it.

Or even Micheal can correct it.

Updated. Should we set a cut-off date for predictions?

In order of number of sols:

600 deglr6328
650 OWW
663 djellison
680 gpurcell
721 Cugel
747 Redstone
748 MichaelT
777 paxdan
800 antoniseb
801 avkillick
820 mhoward
842 MahFL
855 remcook
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
876 imran
884 helvick
887 Marz
888 marswiggle
890 AndyG
891 garybeau
897 SFJCody
900 stevo
900 Bob Shaw
902 ElkGroveDan
904 Steve
911 Myran
915 bergadder
917 David S.
920 MaxSt
921 monty python
933 Mizarkey
934 atomoid
935 climber
940 Toma B
942 Michael Capobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars loon
973 jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 imipak
998 dvandorn
999 chris
1000 general
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 um3k
1024 marsman
1036 alan
1066 Pertinax
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 hendric
1237 nprev


Michaelc

O.K. I will play too...
Write down SOL 940 as my bet...

Before I make my prediction. Is there a cut off date like Michael Capobianco said about making this prediction and what point at Victoria Crater do we have to reach? Will we have to be at the edge and see the dunes at the bottom?

How about the first sol at which observations are made from whichever site number is used for the 'big pan' that will obviously be taken. It may be a few sols before that, but it would be an un-arguable point of reference.

Doug

Did someone calculate approx. what sol Oppy will be when MRO will start HiRise shots ?
Will help to bet which one will shot the first "VC Pan" first...

MRO will start it's science imaging (shortly) after the end of the Martian Solar conjuction on November 8th. That would be Sol 993 by my reckoning.

It would be quite neat if it all came together for an Image of Oppy arriving at the edge of Victoria on S1K.

A new director update has been issued on march 28th. They talked of "winter heaven" for both vehicules and said that VC will be Oppy's winter heaven! We are 130-150 sols away from official winter, correct ?

The SH Winter solstice is on Sol 904 for Oppy ~ August 8th.

Our traditional view of winter as the time when axial tilt has our hemisphere leaning away from the sun doesn't have any major meaning for Opportunity since it is so close to the equator however Mars has a much more eccentric orbit than earth and there is a very pronounced seasonal effect as a result. Mid Winter Sol for Oppy is in my book arguably on Sol 884 when insolation is at a minimum. There is approximately 0.5% more insolation by Sol 904.

The following matrix is a outlook arrival Victoria Crater update:
The distances were partial updated from JPL's web except to the soles 771-777
[font=Courier New]

Rodolfo

I think that was mid-winter haven, not heaven. It sounds the same but the circumstances are quite different. Sort of like a notion of water verses an ocean of water.

Well my overly optimistic guess that they'd average 100 meters/day in this run are proving to have been over the top. My estimate for Sol 800 at the ejecta blanket is wrong. currently, we're about 1500 meters from the ejecta blanket, a little more with our zig-zag path, and if we maintain a pace of 30 meters/Sol (still a little optimistic), we'll get there around Sol 840. That's my new guess.

No more new bets. Except if there is a clamour popular to change a new rules. I am not a judge but as another player.

Up to now, there is a list of 66 members doing a bet. Up to know, there is 15 members out of bet.

Click to view attachment
Recently corrected (MaxSt, antoniesb)

Rodolfo

Fair enough. Consider this a concession speach from the person with the earliest guess. Good luck to whoever is closest to 840.

Well look on the bright side. At least you weren't one of those to pick 1000+.
I think you will be closer than what most people think.

Actually, my bet is 920. And monty python's is 921.

I'm one of the "1000++er"s. But, to be honest, this bet is only kind of a "hedge", because in secret, of course I'm hoping for a smooth ride with an much earlier arrival date ... But, if we'll go into trouble again and another purgatory-style delay, then, well at least I'll have the consolation of possibly winning the bet

Already corrected.

Rodolfo

I took a look at the document, and several people seemed to be eliminated (your fifteen) that shouldn't be yet.
Only people up to about Sol 785 should be officially eliminated now by my guessing. You've knocked people off through about 865.

Oouuch , the numbers have crossed. I recognized my error and I already corrected them. Now , the numbers of members who must pack their bag to go home has lowered from 15 to 10 only by now.

But, many more might be already preparing their bags since now, the Oppy has already advanced 23.2 % of a 2,200 meters in a straight line between rims of Erebus and Victoria craters since the Sol 758 in which Oppy left Erebus rim (a funny and strange climbing over a small trench). Up to know, Oppy traveled 511 meters in 24 soles (782-758). So, it will need 79 soles to arrive at the Victoria's rim with the present pace, however, it would be increased with the future new Oppy's aches. Hence, many of members with bet number lower than 861 are crossing their fingers and shouting at Oppy: Hurry up right now!!!

Have a fun time!

Rodolfo

If we are lucky the last ~500 meters before the rim of Victoria will be as smooth terrain as the terrain around Endurance. That way those 500 meters could be covered in 3 days

And btw. RNeuhaus it is the current pace not peace

Go Oppy Go

OK, my guess is Victoria by sol 895. That's based on how far it's traveled from Erebus up to sol 787 with 20 or 30 sols of messing around.

Should we start putting asterisks by new pool entries?

Michael

How about getting some people who made a prediction before Erebus back into the game? Add the number of sols Opportunity was motionless due to working out the joint problem to their predictions.

I don't mind...as long as they don't end up too close to the actual "best" estimation

For me it is fine to have a third round of bet, just to have a fun time.

The deadline of bet might end by next week, April 19 and then no more round of bets? The ones which didn't peform the third round of bet, the bet will take from the 2nd round of bet.

Now Oppy is still about 1700 meters or about 24% away in straight line from VC. Looks like in good health with 6 strong wheel motors and 5 strong actuators motors and one actuator somewhat lazy (front-right?).....only by now.... About the advance surface conditions, it is possible that the Oppy will have to cross lots of etched terrain and somewhat taller dunes before starting to slid down into a smoother land toward the VC by about 320 meters of smooth sand?

Any toughts?

Rodolfo

On topic called "VC on the Horizon" Doug quoted : It takes about 40 days for Sol's and Days to lag by 1 full day (i.e. Sol 40 = Day 41). Thus - it's a cycle of 40 days, for which I'd guess each rover is restricted for about 10-14 sols (although I'll ask Jim next QnA time),
This means that we have the equivalent of 33-35 driving Sols possibilities in a 40 Sol period. There are 2 days for week-end every 7 sols (yes, even on Mars) so we loose another 11.5 sols/40 sols : down to 25. If we keep going at 21 m/sol (your last status) the distance covered will be 525m/40 Sol period so with 3 more cycles, we'll be 1575m closer. Add another 7 sols i.e. 147m, you're at Victoria in 127 more sols from now!
Sol arrival will be 935...and that's already my bet!
Why do you want to go for a 3rd round? Everybody know that I'm gona win.
OK, OK let do it for fun (I'm already having fun doing this calculations).
So, I say 935 for change....and I'll blame Doug if I'm wrong ... and I'll (may be) share the price if I won.
Climber

What event marks the arrival, first image of the floor of Victoria?

No. Sunrise on Sol 902.

I'm going to stick with my original wager of sol 600. Oppy has been travelling so quickly lately that soon she will surely enter a time warp and arrive at the crater before she left.

My suggestion was the first sol at which an image is taken at the site number and drive number at which the first full pancam panorama of VC is taken. When we stop to have a 'good look' - we have arrived. It doesnt have to be that first image OF the panorama - just the first image taken from the same place. (usually a Navcam pan a day or two earlier)

Doug

CODE

New update:
Last sol drive       : 789
Soles since start    : 31
Transversed distance : 520 meters    (previous was 511 meters)
Average speed        : 16.8 m/sol    (slowed down from 21.3 m/sol)
Remaining distance   : 1680 meters

Outlook arrival date:    889.2 sol   ---> Jul 21 (Delayed from sol 886 to 889 sol)

In general Oppy has slowed down due to past restricted sol and also a pause for an remote sense integration.

Rodolfo

Never. It seems like a logical bet.


Hoping I will soon be wrong,
A Nattering Nabob of Negativity.

Sol 794 update



Rodolfo

Knowing those overly sentimental Yankees they are probably targeting a July 4 arrival.

Ah, but with the Martian year being just about twice an Earth year, which local July 4th are they going to select? The first one or the one the day after?

Andy (96 posts and still a newbie)