QUOTE (Nirgal @ May 18 2005, 05:20 PM)
Does anyone have a link to a graph showing the power output level
against Sols (from the beginning of the mission) ?
Should be possible to do a power/life-time extrapolation from that, which
not only takes into account the slow degradation by dust accumulation but also
the "uplifting" effects of probable future cleaning events.
Working on it by pulling (very) approximate data from a bunch of sources mostly inspecting insolation graphs from various pdf's to try and estimate the seasonal variations.
Approximate data using Insolation chart from
Netlander Virtual Prototyping, solar cell data from various sources but taking 900Watt Hours as the initial 100% capacity of the arrays, and working on 0.28% average degradation in Solar Panel efficiency per sol which is what I believe the assumed value was prior to MER. If anyone has better data sources I'd love to get them.
Rev 0 ugly Excel chart (image) attached showing my estimate of the expected power output of the panels on Spirit and Opportunity. This indicates that the rovers would have been expected to cross below the 400 watt minimum practical operational level at around Sol 160 and passed into the death zone below 280 watt hours at around sol 260.
I've plotted in the actual values I've gleaned from the mission updates however it's very sparse (about 5 randomly spaced data points for each rover) and needs some work. Then I extrapolated out from now using the original assumptions.
As it stands without any further cleaning events the rovers should still have enough juice to still do careful work at Sol 650+ for Opportunity and 690 or so for Spirit. Next southern hemisphere winter hits it's worst stage starting around Sol 890 which would be very nice to see.
A major dust storm would cancel all bets though - available power could drop rapidly below critical levels and we are in dust storm season AFAIK.