Ah, gotcha! Makes sense now.



Shudder away. The story is on NASAWATCH, and that usually feeds other big sites, so start your engines...

No, seriously, c'mon guys, everyone, lighten up This isn't necessarily a bad thing, you know? I mean, so far everyone has done everything right: NASA hasn't announced anything too early, or dumbed anything down; people here have been analytical and restrained; CNN and the BBC aren't scrolling bright red, flashing "Breaking News! Life Found On Mars!!!" tickers and we're talking seriously here about a scenario where very, very important results come back from a Mars mission, and even if those results don't come back from this mission then one day - hopefully - we'll be here discussing a confirmed detection of Something Interesting.

Try to think of this as a test of the system, and the test worked. No forum frenzy, no premature announcements on White House lawns, no sensationalist tabloid coverage, and everyone here is now a lot more savvy with MECA and Phoenix hard science.

I really do see your point and the realist in me agrees. But why would they have informed the White House if they weren't more confident? Also, they had a press conference to talk about the progress of the mission. They speculate and get stuff wrong and we don't hold it against them - we get to bird-dog this essential human process because we paid for it and it is exciting. When the papers come out and there is a calibration problem, then they can be embarrassed.

I guess this is what I'm whining about. It is science. There is always that little (or big) corner of doubt and, although they should know in this small instance what they've got exactly, they should be talking as if to a broad community that understands that all scientific announcements are contingent. I wonder if trying to manage the message doesn't contribute to the misunderstanding about science in society. And then there is the problem of reporters who take their job seriously and find out stuff they're maybe not >supposed< to know...

I profoundly agree with this, and your whole attitude about the situation Stu. This is a great site and all you smart guys have made this a lot of fun.

Agreed. But I have to say I don't think we can blame Covault here for publishing his story. It's the responsibility of the science team to keep the results quiet in these situations, and somebody leaked this (Covault should've heard corroboration from more than one actually).

I agree completely with others that this could become a nightmare if it gets out widely. Loved your "sit it down on a hard chair" analogy, Stu! It's not us I'm worried about, though - we can take care of ourselves. It's the public out there, and the potential black eye on the team if expectations are raised way up and then dashed because the calibration was wrong, or because the result is just "underwhelming", in nprev's words.

I also must stress a point Paul just touched on. Can some blame also be put on the people at the top of the Phoenix program for briefing the presidential advisor well before they were certain enough to go public (which Covault claims could even be September)? Shouldn't it have seemed likely that, with a team of this size, that fact might be leaked and cause a great headache?

Talk about admin headaches - it can't be much fun to be a PI and discover that someone on the team's said something that they shouldn't have to a journalist. I suspect more of that annoyance will be directed towards the team than the journalist.

What puzzles me is that, given the pretty feeble press coverage of the mission so far (only one front page article on the sensationally superb EDL, for instance), what could be likely to get significant MSM coverage? Methane? Well, maybe. I can't see carbonates or nitrogen compounds making the front page, though. Believe it or not, the public are really pretty disinterested in the chemical make-up of Martian regolith, until it gets so complex it falls into a different discipline altogether; and as we know, MECA can't really do that.

As I was about to post this, I noticed it's hit Slashdot... just in time to make the tabloids on Sunday here in the UK. That's not as bad as it sounds, though, IMO -- it'll be wrapping fish and chips* by Tuesday, I suspect.

*metaphorical fish and chips, that is... >nostalgic sigh for the days when it came wrapped in real newspaper<

Good post, Fred. No, I don't blame Covault (though I still think he hung his a** out on the line with respect to future access to insider info this time); he's a reporter, he reported, that's what they do. Was a little ticked off at him from a social responsibility viewpoint before, but I've had time to read & think. (Thanks, Stu! )

What I lately find most intriguing is that it will apparently take at least a month to release this finding, and presumably this is due to the need to confirm, confirm, confirm. The MECA sampling schedule might be something interesting to watch; wonder if there will be any changes.

Coverage of this story on Universe Today...

Where, according to Cowing, we are in "smug elitist mode"

I honestly don't understand that guy sometimes.

Not only is the story there but Doug got Cowinged! This "smug elitist" (hahaha) "BBS" got criticized with Cowings' renowned side-dish of bile. Badge of Honour, Doug!

He has some good things to say, but he just doesn't know how to play with the other kids...

Er....let's not add to the admin's headaches here, guys. Starting a pie fight with this bunch does not seem productive; unlike grade-school bullies, it really is best to ignore this with dignity.

Worst comes to worst, I'll just call Chuck Norris.

That's a great shame, because I find NASAWATCH very informative and quite a treasure trove of stuff-you-can't-find-anywhere-else...

The NASAWATCH website's banner declares: This is not a NASA Website. You might learn something. Well, anyone coming here from that story will learn something; they'll read no diatribes, only a lot of informed debate and discussion, which will help them make sense of the story just like it has helped all of us. So in a way KC has done his curious readers a favour by pointing them in our direction. And ironically, any NASA readers who come here will find only support for them and their work, so I think his attack on us, and Doug in particular, is kind of wasted. NASA readers will find only friends here.

You're not alone. Somehow, the fact that I don't think Craig picked the best time or place to ask Pete what the story was, and the fact that we are now talking about the story now it has broken, are contradictory.

But hey - getting flamed by Cowing twice - that's got to be something worth feeling smug about.

Right! Sorry. (But I have so much pie...)

I was enjoying both the speculation and the meta conversation until I read the NASA watch post. I agree with the point, but there's no reason to be ad hominem.

The speculation's been interesting, just because it gets folk's thoughts out there on what some really cool results would be. And we know it's just speculation.

The meta-conversation about Aviation Leak has been interesting as well. Can't really get ticked at anyone doing their job. And the non-photo instruments could actually hold their cards less closely it might help the public understand that there's a scientific method before these scientific pronouncements. Far too many people think that scientists shake up their facts like a boggle game and find only exactly what they're looking for. Global warming denialists especially. For the team to flat out say "We aren't sure yet, but we're excited," just rams home the skeptical nature of science. On the other hand, announcing that NASA scientists have some exciting results but they're unsure might be fodder for conspiracy theorists--AWST always has been--but they're lost souls anyways.

Scientists face increasing pressure from interested outsiders (often invoking the chant: "My tax dollars payed for this.") demanding to look over their shoulders as they undergo the difficult task of reading and interpreting their data.

Perhaps they should hang a sign similar to that used by some car mechanics:
Click to view attachment

One thing's for sure - it's going to be an exciting month!

I think that misses the point. I don't want to look over their shoulder while they do the work (well I do really, but I get it). However, when they have a press conference I want them to be able to describe the state of their work with the appropriate caveats. Your mechanic analogy is more like hearing an explosion from the garage and asking, what was that? "I'll tell you when I know exactly what happened" is not as useful as "your car blew up, but I don't know why yet."

I was going to say -- I *am* a smug elitist. Don't know about the rest of y'all...

-the other Doug

One minute it was all about ice delivery to ovens, and now this crops up! In a matter of hours we've gone from the sublimed to the ridiculous

Genius sir, absolute genius.

( I am SO going to use that on my blog and in my talks!! )

...good one, PFK!

In a way, I'm honored...never been accused of being elite and/or association with same in ANY way, shape or form before!

Well...<stretches>...time to go outside, fire up a stogie, crack a beer, and watch the neighborhood crackheads panhandle while the kids paint graffiti on my apartment building...just another day for us LA elitists here...

Just saw a post on this on the general political discussion board I frequent, so it is definitely beginning a break out into the wider media.

How long before the Drudge Report link, ya think?

Oh, crap. Probably not long at all; propogation times are short absent major international news of other types.

Fasten your seat belts.

Well, it's no huge surprise is it? Once the media bloodhounds get a whiff of a story-scented scrap of cloth that's it...

You can't keep things like this under wraps, not in this modern world when there's pseudo-glory to be gained by gathering and then revealing info before everyone else.

Whatever will be, will be. Steady on chaps. Don't panic. Remember you're UMSF...

If the MECA results merit their own press conference, great. Then that is what they should have... in due course.

PS: I do feel your pain.

For myself, I was just surprised by Craig Covault's question. The more so because man is a professional. Been doing this space reporting for a long time. I respect him. But I have to agree with our esteemed smug elitist Doug. You do not embarrass your sources in public.

DO look forward to whatever MECA has found..... more grist for the mill.

Craig ....Proud to be a UMSF contributor

Doing a quick check, the search terms "mars" and "science advisor" only bring up two relevant articles on Google News, one the AW&ST article, and one regurgitation of same on worldnetdaily. Searching for "mars" and "white house" picks up the slashdot post. That's about it for Google News.

In the general blogosphere, technorati shows only a few references. Searching on "mars" and "covault" brings up the "Breaking Mars Story: Noise From The BBS Crowd" snark from nasawatch--also a random blog entry with no comments.

In short, fears of the unwashed masses appear to be greatly exaggerated--rather, the problem is that most people aren't even aware what Phoenix is, other than the city, & could only be enlightened by exposure to the fact that intriguing chemical analyses are being done by a spacecraft of that name on Mars.

I dunno... a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, I got a journalism degree in college, and actually worked in newspapers for a couple of years (until I discovered I could make *tons* more money in technical writing).

I have something of a clue of how these things work. And I'd bet y'all any money the sequence went something like this:

Craig Covault is sitting around his office and gets a call from a friend who monitors the White House beat (likely for some other news organization). Let's face it, Covault isn't a White House correspondent.

Covault's friend says, "Hey, I just got word that your Mars lander guys came and gave a special presentation to the President. What the <bleep> is happening over on your side of the street, Craig?"

Covault guardedly replies, "Nothing they've told *me*."

Whereupon friend correspondent says, "Well, they have to have *something* hot, or they wouldn't be briefing the White House."

Now, if you're Craig Covault at that moment, maybe having nursed some private concerns over the very, very little information that has been released from the first TEGA run and from the WCL runs, just how are you going to feel? Maybe just a little, well... blindsided?

I can't blame the man for reacting the way he did. If the above scenario is correct, Covault got his skinny from a political reporter, while his own contacts in the Phoenix team and in the space industry in general had not only not given him any hints of this, it might just feel to him like his contacts have been deliberately withholding information from him. (Please note, I am *not* particularly suggesting that is the case, or that it would be un-called-for even if true -- I'm only suggesting that this scenario may have made Covault *feel* like that.)

If it were me, and especially if private questions along the same lines had been stonewalled, then heck, yes, I'll ask the question at a press conference. If I'm feeling like my contacts don't respect me, then I'm more motivated to remind them that respect is a two-way street.

Again, speaking from the point of view of someone who has worked the reporter's side of the street, and knows a little bit about the somewhat lunatic dynamic between a beat reporter and his/her contacts.

-the other Doug

Nasawatch.com comments on the phoenix twitter: "Heard about the recent news reports implying I may have found Martian life. Those reports are incorrect".

While I disagree about his comment re: this forum, I think that Keith Cowing is right that NASA PAO is sleeping on this. The confusion between finding life and "potential for life" will be lost to the public IMHO unless cleared up by NASA.

Hehe! It's so much fun to speculate about things like this. IMmostHO, interested members here should bite their tongues, and refrain from further public comments until the "official news" is released by the relevant scientists. To be honest, we have no idea with regard to what they may have discovered, unless someone of us is a very lucky insider.

"lost to the public..." I wouldn't discount the public as lost.

Well the twitter page seem to refute ALL of this story. No Whitehouse briefing has ever taken place.

Curiouser and curiouser.

I go away for one week to move house and everyone thinks they've discovered life on mars.. tut tut tut
Seriously, I'm going to wait for an official announcement before I let myself think anything.

I'm tellin' ya...it's all hype, and not hype constructed or clearly wanted by the Phoenix team or NASA. There's a bad odor about.

Oh, definitely hype, but hype of a mysterious, shiny new-found nugget of Interesting Science. There is a story here. Almost certainly not anything that's going to force a paradigm-shift, or going to prompt a White House lawn press announcement, but hopefully something that will confidently tap another piece of the 1 million piece jigsaw of martian history into place.

I completely agree. It's going to be interesting, regardless.

Has anyone seen any of these news reports implying the discovery of Martian life that "Phoenix" is talking about? It's irrelevant, I know, but I'm just curious about what she's talking about. I haven't seen anything like that.

I think it's just the same story but spun a little wilder, that's all. Some commentators are adding 2 and 2 and getting 5, others are rounding it up to 10 and moving at Warp Factor Whacko towards the announcement of Phoenix having found critters on Mars.

Of course there's life on Mars. Chuck Norris is everywhere, all the time...watching!

Actually, Chuck Norris has already been to Mars; that's why there are no signs of life there.

For what it's worth (which is admittedly not much), my take on all this is that it's sort of a "lose/lose" situation. Though I think that Mr. Covault's approach to his question at the briefing was odd and mildly uncomfortable (definite hints of conspiracy in his tone), he certainly has every right and reason to publish his article. Absolutely nothing wrong with it. However, the scientists need to do what they need to do in verifying this potentially "provocative" data before releasing it. At the same time, I honestly don't blame the 'lay person' out there who might read too much into this story because, let's face it, what else are they supposed to read into it?

*sigh*

As someone else said, this will be an interesting month. I find it funny that it has truly turned into a "he said/she said" story (Covault and Phoenix).

{Let me point out I have no inside information, and don't know in great detail how the MECA instrument works}

Can the MECA instrument image a particular sample more than once, and/or at regular intervals ??

And if it did, and something 'got bigger', 'changed color', disappeared, multiplied, or spelled out "all these worlds are yours, except Europa", we might speculate something is indeed "up".

But I hasten to add, scientists would have to rule out vibration in the lander from shaking things around in the sample, or weird (inorganic) chemicals are etching the sample holder or crystallizing, or maybe volatiles are migrating around the sample, etc.

There could be something going on, that while extremely interesting to scientist, might nevertheless be dull and boring to the public at large.

Things like color changes, shifting of granules, and volatiles condensing, might at first glance be one of those "OMG!" moments, but then good old prosaictivity rears it's head, and for the public at least, it's all a big yawn.

I just read this on Keith's site:

"Of course, the denizens of that BBS will soon enage in attacks on me and NASA Watch in response - things that Mr. Ellison loftily claims to forbid on his website - but allows to persist when he sees fit. Oh well, Doug, so much (again) for consistency ..."

...and looking at the thread, I think I am mostly to blame for opening the NASA Watch door and am the one who wrote insulting things about Keith. So, I'm sorry. I'll get the hang of the tone you all maintain here - which I really enjoy.

As for Keith, I should apologize also. I actually think he does a very great service and many of his critiques are right on. I just think he would be more effective if he wasn't so obnoxious when he delivers his shots. He is completely wrong about this "BBS" however, and, if he really read the back and forth here, would see this isn't a UMSF "nation" of sycophants.

And now I will concentrate on adding to the signal, not the noise...

I agree somebody will lose and that makes me sad. It'll be either "get your facts straight" or "never, ever, play the press." My hope is that the team will "lose," but no one will care because the news will be "Come to Mars - just bring your seeds, air and radiation protection." The Phoenix team has done a great job, regardless.

Well...let's just put it in perspective: Is any of this worth it? We all know & very much value this forum, wouldn't be here if we didn't.

One of the best things about getting older is that you just don't give a damn what people think or say about you anymore because you have nothing left to prove. I think that UMSF in Internet years has certainly reached the same level of maturity, and the richness of the dialogue & contributions by our extremely talented & knowledgable membership (me excluded!) certainly stand on their own merits, as has been proven by numerous publications & citations in print and elsewhere on the Web. UMSF has nothing left to prove by any standard.

---

Tasp, regarding MECA microscopy: Certainly a possibility, one I have considered, but I'd have to rule it out given the unequivocal denial from the Phoenix Twitter. Think that detection of carbon and/or nitrogen compounds is the front-runner by far.

Does anyone have a feel for how significant it is for a team to "brief" the President's Science Advisor on preliminary results? Maybe my own getting-older experience is just making me dense, but I'm failing to see why there's a story here.

--Greg

Correction: I guess if there is nitrogen and water and diggable dirt it could really just be "bring your seeds!"

Well, who knows. If there's anything more to this than silly season hype, it'll be interesting to read/ogle when it's released. Meanwhile, I'm just casting around for an excuse to say: "Ahead, Warp Factor: Wacko!" -- great phrase, Stu! Though perhaps I should prefer "Speed: Standard by Fruit Loop", per the "Dr Who" thread...

Well, for a planetary mission it would be pretty significant indeed...mostly, the Presidential Science Advisor is concerned with developments that might have a direct economic, military, or social impact that would require rapid position and/or policy formation, so it's not done lightly. However, this apparently has not occurred.