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Full Version: 2014 MU69 "Ultima Thule" flyby
Unmanned Spaceflight.com > Outer Solar System > Pluto / KBO > New Horizons
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MahFL
QUOTE (Explorer1 @ Dec 31 2018, 04:16 AM) *
DSN Now shows 1.06 kb/ sec download! This is 'Failsafe 1', right?


Correct, download ends at 23:56 EST.
WTW
DSN communication seems to have stopped at 04:43UTC, with several bounces lasting until ~04:47 when the signal dropped.

With the exception of a weird signal drop at ~04:26UTC, signal strength was fairly steady at ~ -147 to -148.5 dBm throughout, indicating good tracking at Canberra and stable pointing by the spacecraft - a good sign...
nprev
Remember that DSN Now is not an authoritative source to determine what's going on with any given spacecraft. See this post re the Opportunity listening campaign.

It's definitely cool, but anything but official. smile.gif
angel1801
Closest approach is just under 24 hours away. In fact, as of right now it is 23 hours and 1 minute to go.
centsworth_II
QUOTE (Bjorn Jonsson @ Dec 30 2018, 06:25 PM) *
Interesting tidbit in the Spaceflight Now live-blog from Hal Weaver, there are some hints that Ultima Thule is a quickly-rotating object.
From Alan Stern's post #9 in this thread:
"We're looking for periods ranging from ridiculously long (weeks) to ridiculously short (2 hours). Nothing firm yet."
nprev
QUOTE (dudley @ Dec 30 2018, 05:12 PM) *
How fast would Ultima Thule have to be spinning, I wonder, so that the light curve would be smeared out into one consistent light level?


That's an excellent question. I suppose it would depend on how continuous the dataset was above all else and the rate of sample acquisition; would think that there would also have to virtually no detectable albedo variations at any distance much beyond where NH is right now, which is maybe not too much of a stretch for such a small (and likely primeval) object.

We should hopefully know well before C/A, though. That image Hungry put up looks SORTA maybe kinda oblong if nothing else, so it oughta spin around in a noticeable fashion.
paraisosdelsistemasolar
According to spanish newspaper "Publico", New Horizons is due to land in Ultima Thule tomorrow and also states that was launched in 1996. We've been trying all the morning to get that text updated, but seems impossible. Don't know where they've got all this information.

Click to view attachment

Anyway, there is a lot of expectation in spanish social media about the flyby, and that is really nice. Good luck for the team!.

climber
QUOTE (paraisosdelsistemasolar @ Dec 31 2018, 11:59 AM) *
According to spanish newspaper "Publico", New Horizons is due to land in Ultima Thule tomorrow and also states that was launched in 1996. We've been trying all the morning to get that text updated, but seems impossible. Don't know where they've got all this information.

Click to view attachment

Anyway, there is a lot of expectation in spanish social media about the flyby, and that is really nice. Good luck for the team!.

Neither they’ve heard of the Voyagers and Pioneer 10&11th....
scalbers
QUOTE (Hungry4info @ Dec 31 2018, 01:37 AM) *
It doesn't appear to be a binary object from this image.
(Processed by Daniel Bamberger (stacked, deconvoluted, enlarged)).

Interesting to see this result from the deconvolution (deconvolving?), since a number of the neighboring stars appeared to have an L shaped appearance in the raw images.
MahFL
Failsafe 2 should be downloading now.
scalbers
DSN Now (unofficially) indicates the downlink at 500b/sec from Goldstone.
nprev
Fingers crossed that the latest data gives some solid indication of UT's shape and consequently its rotation state.
Hungry4info
Press conference has started.
nprev
It's apparently indeed oblong, at least!
Explorer1
John Spencer confirms: elongated blob!
Hungry4info
Failsafe 1.
nprev
And STILL no apparent light curve. ohmy.gif
dtolman
Now that its shape is apparent, are there explanations left besides it tumbling so slowly that its not apparent in images?
Gladstoner
I wonder if it could be a relatively smooth oblate ellipsoid rotating around the short axis? That could mask a rotation rate until details become resolved.

Here’s hoping for the unexpected...
scalbers
Has the elongation (possible fainter lobe) rotated ~180 degrees relative to the previous image 15 hours earlier? This (together with an absent light curve) would be consistent with a rotation axis aligned with the viewing direction.

NASA TV New Horizons Q&A is to begin shortly at 2015 UTC.
Daniele_bianchino_Italy
ok. . Binary system is excluse?
nprev
No, still possible that it is a binary. Resolution is not yet good enough to determine one way or another.
JRehling
In the absence of any other forces, could solar radiation have halted its rotation in the orientation that presents the least "pressure"? That would indeed be a wacky possibility, but the Yarkovsky effect sounds wacky at first, too.
WTW
Again, a completely "unofficial" indication from DSN NOW:
The download signal from New Horizons seems to have dropped at approximately 21:03UTC. Again, the indicated signal strength was fairly stable throughout at about -147 to -149 dBm.

Almost simultaneously, antenna DSN26 at Goldstone began transmitting a very strong (79kW) signal directly toward MU69 and New Horizons -- presumably for the radio science experiment when that signal arrives hours later.

And meanwhile, it appears that all four antennas at Canberra are all aligned and arrayed and tracking New Horizons as it climbs above the Earth's horizon.

I know that DSN Now is not in any way definitive (and can be misleading), but these folks are actively involved in this endeavor. They never get to be up on the platforms at news conferences, but they are crucial. And fun to watch.
Explorer1
QUOTE (JRehling @ Dec 31 2018, 04:38 PM) *
In the absence of any other forces, could solar radiation have halted its rotation in the orientation that presents the least "pressure"? That would indeed be a wacky possibility, but the Yarkovsky effect sounds wacky at first, too.


That far out from the Sun, I doubt that there's any significant pressure from light, at least for a natural object. We don't know of any slow rotaters beyond the Trojans.
Though given 4.5 billion years, many things are possible....
nprev
If it is indeed a slow rotator AND it's binary/contact binary that's even more puzzling just from a conservation of momentum standpoint. Would have had to have been an extremely low-velocity capture indeed and one or both of them had to be barely rotating in the first place.

I suppose it's possible that there were one or more encounters with or impacts by other objects at some point in the distant past that hit all the various vectors just right to create this hypothetical binary, but it is very empty way out there, not like the inner system at all. Not really buying that scenario.
scalbers
If it's a (non-contact) binary we'd be referring to a slow orbital revolution rather than rotation. My odds would favor a peanut shaped single object, like Halley or Borelli. This would mean a sizeable neck if it is a contact binary. At least so far there hasn't been any hint of a saddle point or minimum of pixel intensity between the two "lobes".
Explorer1
Less than 1 lunar distance now; 7 hours to close the remaining gap, just like after launch (Newton's First Law wink.gif )
Floyd
At the press conference Dr. Spencer used a pen to demonstrate how if it rotates perpendicular to its long axis, and the rotation axis is facing you, you see the same surface all the time.
JohnVV
based on failsafe1 artist concept
Click to view attachment

as seen from NH
HSchirmer
QUOTE (JRehling @ Dec 31 2018, 10:38 PM) *
In the absence of any other forces, could solar radiation have halted its rotation in the orientation that presents the least "pressure"? That would indeed be a wacky possibility, but the Yarkovsky effect sounds wacky at first, too.


Hmm, evaporation from the sunrise side removes mass and momentum, transfers it to the evening-side via condensation....

"In Lower Pomerania is the Diamond Mountain... every hundred years a little bird comes and sharpens its beak on it"
The Brothers Grimm

"You must think that's a helluva long time!... Two Billion years...Personally? I think that's a helluva bird"
Steven Moffat/Peter Capaldi
MahFL
Less than 200K miles now.
Daniele_bianchino_Italy
My interpretation,
angel1801
One hour and 53 minutes to closest approach now.
Gladstoner
I'm imagining it as something with a form like Methone, but probably not as smooth. Perhaps this vast and remote neighborhood could have been quiet enough through the ages to prevent any disruptions that would result in an irregular form.
Decepticon
I expect a crater-less comet like object.
MahFL
QUOTE (Decepticon @ Jan 1 2019, 03:57 AM) *
I expect a crater-less comet like object.



I predict more than 1 crater. wink.gif
Explorer1
Less than an hour left....
Aldebaran
QUOTE (dtolman @ Dec 31 2018, 08:50 PM) *
Now that its shape is apparent, are there explanations left besides it tumbling so slowly that its not apparent in images?


Surrounded by millions of tiny orbiting particles
MahFL
QUOTE (Aldebaran @ Jan 1 2019, 05:15 AM) *
Surrounded by millions of tiny orbiting particles



Hope not as NH would be destroyed.
angel1801
Only 9 minutes or just over 9000 KM to closest approach now.
MahFL
QUOTE (angel1801 @ Jan 1 2019, 05:24 AM) *
Only 9 minutes or just over 9000 KM to closest approach now.


Gratz to the NH team, hopefully everything worked ok.
nprev
We wait on the beach of a midnight sea, anxiously awaiting the faintest of comforting whispers from our small, small ship as she passes a distant, mysterious island faster than dreams, far beyond our horizon

Good luck.

Tom Ames
QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 31 2018, 10:06 PM) *
We wait on the beach of a midnight sea, anxiously awaiting the faintest of comforting whispers from our small, small ship as she passes a distant, mysterious island faster than dreams, far beyond our horizon

Good luck.


That's beautiful, and a wonderful and optimistic sentiment with which to start the new year. Thank you.
Daniele_bianchino_Italy
QUOTE (nprev @ Jan 1 2019, 07:06 AM) *
We wait on the beach of a midnight sea, anxiously awaiting the faintest of comforting whispers from our small, small ship as she passes a distant, mysterious island faster than dreams, far beyond our horizon

Good luck.

A Good words.. Many Thanks . .����
nprev
Acquisition of signal for 'phone home' expected at approx. 1535 GMT, NASA TV live coverage beginning now! (1520 GMT)
nprev
Carrier!
nprev
TELEMETRY LOCK!!!
Explorer1
Telemetry coming down....
nprev
RECORDER POINTERS AS PREDICTED, EXPECTED AMOUNT OF DATA ACQUIRED!
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