I think that is why they call it rocket science. Health monitoring is always a trade-off between more knowledge and the cost of the education.

Luck will always be a factor. Fools are much too ingenious to fool proof anything.

Is SpaceX getting a little government help for its Falcon 9 launcher?
Perhaps to launch a space plane for the USAF?

See here:

Final frontier revisited: the US responds to space requirements

By Bill Sweetman IDR Technology and Aerospace Editor

So far, little attention has been paid to a potentially important new start in
the Fiscal Year 2007 US defence budget: the first funding line in years to be
dedicated to a military, partially reusable space launch vehicle. If it survives
this year's budget deliberations in Congress, the Affordable Responsive
Spacelift (ARES) programme could start with flight tests of a small X-plane
demonstrator as early as 2010.

Another little-publicised new development in 2005 was that the new-start SpaceX
(Space Exploration Technologies) company announced an order for the Falcon 9
expendable launcher from an unspecified US government customer. The US Air Force
(USAF) had previously ordered launches from SpaceX, covering the small Falcon 1,
but this was the first US government order for a medium-class launcher from a
non-traditional company.

The philosophy behind ARES is to balance the advantages of the reusable system
with those of the expendable - which, like SpaceX's Falcon, is quite simple and
can be cheap to develop. Compared with a fully reusable system, ARES requires
the development of about one third as much reusable hardware, with a less
challenging speed and temperature envelope. Compared with a fully expendable
system, ARES expends about one third as much mass. In a study by the Aerospace
Corporation, the hybrid approach turned out to be the best choice in about 85
per cent of the scenarios examined.

Underlying this philosophical approach is the fact that ARES is much more about
responsiveness than economics, although the USAF is looking to reduce costs by a
factor of three to six. The first step in the ARES programme, according to USAF
documents, is to define and build a small-scale demonstrator. This would be
about one quarter the size of a full-scale ARES and would weigh about 6,800 kg
without booster fuel. Its main goals would be to demonstrate the integration of
modern materials, avionics and propulsion technology in a low-maintenance,
high-flight-rate vehicle - one specific target is to launch five times in 10
days with a 15-person crew - and to demonstrate a flight profile in which the
booster would release an upper stage at Mach 7 and return to its launch site.

360 of 2,684 words

[End of non-subscriber extract.]

http://idr.janes.com/public/idr/index.shtml

I think the amaturish nature of the Falcon launch failure is telling. It is clear that much of the process was not in control. Much of the cost of rocket building is in QA - material control and design margins. Ninety percent of these costs could be eliminated, and system reliability reduced less than 1%. But if only 1% of your mission critical systems fail, where goes the mission?

well,
actually signed up for the spacex mailing list seems like a year ago and got the first e-mail today

from the SpaceX web site in the update section...

some good tidbits...can't wait to see Falcon 9 on the test stand!!

From http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/06071...on1_update.html

Falcon 1 Failure Traced to a Busted Nut

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the sponsor of the Falcon 1’s inaugural flight, announced July 18 that the review board concluded a small aluminum nut designed to hold the fuel pipe fitting in place failed due to subsurface corrosion not visible to the naked eye. The resulting kerosene leak caused the main engine to catch fire shortly after the rocket cleared the launch pad, bringing the flight to a premature end.


“The board determined that the only plausible cause of the fire was the failure of an aluminum B-nut on the fuel pump inlet pressure transducer due to inter-granular corrosion cracking,” the DARPA release states. “This caused [Refined Petroleum-1] fuel to leak onto the engine and down the outside of the thrust chamber. Once the engine ignited, the leaking fuel caught fire. The fire, over time, resulted in a loss of pneumatic pressure, causing the RP-1 and liquid oxygen pre-valves to close, terminating engine thrust 34 seconds after ignition.”

The rocket’s manufacturer, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of El Segundo, Calif., initially suspected that the Falcon 1’s fuel leak was caused by a tiny pipe fitting loosened and accidentally left untightened by technicians doing work on the rocket the day before launch.

The next Falcon 1 launch is slated for November from Kwajalein.

That's what I call a headline...

Phil

"NUTS!"

No. Just one.

Space.com article:


I'm not sure if it was previously shown, but there is now an image of the crashed "FalconSat-2 satellite" as well:

a good update at spacex web site..
good pics too...

cheers
jb

Falcon 1 second launch is now targeted for mid-to-late January 2007 (link)

Launch "attempt", I say, as the first one was a failure.

Just noticed this new, really brief update at spacex.com:

Minor Update

All Falcon 1 parts have been shipped to the launch site to prepare for next flight. Our current schedule calls for a static fire in mid January and first flight countdown in late January. Given the many upgrades to Falcon 1, there may be many countdowns before launch occurs.

--Greg

And from there the trail goes cold......

DemoFlight 2 Launch Update

And the trail heats up, even if we already have one more day's delay. Great news!

Another short update: http://spacex.com/

Posted January 17, 2007

DemoFlight 2 Launch Update

The static fire has moved to Friday (California time) and launch to Monday, January 22. We have not encountered any new issues – the shift in timing is primarily to provide for additional risk reduction activities on site, as we continue to operate with a healthy paranoia.

As stated in the prior update, there is a high likelihood that the dates will continue to change, given the broad array of vehicle robustness upgrades. This will remain true all the way up to the final few seconds of the countdown, as our new health verification software executes hundreds of systems checks between engine ignition at T-3 sec and liftoff at T-0, when the hold down clamps release the rocket for flight. This is a critical phase for verification, given that the vehicle will have undergone substantial state changes throughout the first stage and avionics system.

--

latest update from http://www.spacex.com

DemoFlight 2 Launch Update

During our final check-outs prior to static fire, we uncovered an anomaly with the thrust vector control (TVC) pitch actuator on the second stage that will result in launch being pushed to February. Since this is not used during the static fire, we have decided to push forward with that test in order to acquire valuable data on engine ignition, pad acoustics, and the overall system response. The static fire is now planned to occur between Saturday and Tuesday (California time). This test will proceed very slowly and then only burns for about four seconds, so will not be webcast to avoid boring people silly. We will post a video afterwards.



Upon completion of the static fire, we will take the rocket back into the hangar to thoroughly investigate the TVC issue. With the range available to us only until January 23 (Kwaj needs to reconfigure for an incoming Minuteman mission), this means launch is now planned for mid-February. As I’ve mentioned previously, don’t hold your breath for this launch. Given the large number of robustness improvements and the fact that our vehicle/pad health verification system has increased from about 30 checks to almost 1000, shifts in the launch date are to be expected. Overall, the SpaceX team is quite happy with the smooth progress so far.



--Elon--

And another update


January 25, 2007: DemoFlight 2 Launch Update

In an excess of caution, we decided not to proceed with the static fire this month. The vehicle is now back in the hangar, where the stages are being demated for careful inspection.

The static fire and launch window is now mid to late February, due to Kwaj having to configure for an incoming Minuteman and then reconfigure back to handling a Falcon launch. During this downtime, we will take the opportunity to go over every inch of the rocket with a microscope again.

As Andy Grove said, "Only the Paranoid Survive".

---Elon

From Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913) [web1913]:

Paranoia \Par`a*noi"a\, n. (Med.)
A chronic form of insanity characterized by very gradual
impairment of the intellect, systematized delusion, and
usually by delusions of persecution or mandatory delusions
producing homicidal tendency. In its mild form paranoia may
consist in the well-marked crotchetiness exhibited in persons
commonly called ``cranks.'' Paranoiacs usually show evidences
of bodily and nervous degeneration, and many have
hallucinations, esp. of sight and hearing.

OK, but how would you call ignoring an incoming Minuteman? Psychopathy? Emotional flatness?

During the development of the V2, Werner Von Braun drove to the area in Poland being used as a target in order to observe the incoming missile (they'd been suffering disintegration problems before impact, and wanted an intact missile to land and thus add kinetic energy to the blast). Von Braun, as an engineer, reasoned that the CEP was just that, and so placed himself right on target. The launch took place, and Von Braun soon came to realise that the targetting was indeed *very* precise that day, and dove for cover just as the missile hit a few hundred yards away.

Logic states that he should have been perfectly safe where he was; wisdom suggests not!


Bob Shaw

I'm sure he was waiting in the crater were Apollo 11 was heading...

It is most unlikely that the paranoia quote had anything to do with the missile test. Besides, what kind of a fool would retreat to a tent if he was worried about an incoming ICBM? Or leave his rocket in one?

Elon states that this move is based on "an excess of caution" and HE put the Andy Grove quote in the update. We all try to err on the side of caution. The issue is how far to that side we each should go.

It's not like the Minuteman is carrying a real and armed nuclear warhead.

And neither was the V2 in Bob Shaw's story about Von Braun.

The point was, no one is ignoring an incoming Minuteman. It just doesn't figure into the SpaceX plans other than it means the range is unavailable and there may be other restrictions at Kwaj.

Two new updates :
Posted February 7, 2007
After the upcoming demonstration flight, Falcon 1 is scheduled to launch a satellite for the US Navy Research Laboratory (funded by the Office of Force Transformation) in late summer and then a satellite for the Malaysian Space Agency late in the year. We are also building an additional Falcon 1 vehicle in the event that some promising customer discussions culminate in a fourth Falcon 1 launch this year.

Posted February 8, 2007
We have recently been informed by the Kwajalein Army Range that they do not have sufficient resources to support our launch in mid to late Feb. Several range personnel critical to the launch safety process will be unavailable in that timeframe. The earliest launch window available from the Range now opens March 9.

... and a new website with video and photo galleries, launch manifest...

New update....

"The launch window is now March 19th to 22nd (California time). During extended ground testing in late February, one of our second stage thrust vector control boards indicated a problem. Although our analysis showed substantial margin for flight, we decided nonetheless to increase the robustness of certain of the components and run a delta qualification.

The upgraded boards will be installed this week. If all goes well, Falcon 1 will do a static fire next week and then launch in the week of the 19th.

--Elon--"
http://www.spacex.com/updates.php#demoflig...launch_update_6

Another update on www.spacex.com Posted March 16, 2007

Successful static firing with video posted
More news tomorrow ( Sunday )
Launch countdown as early as Monday
Falcon 9 update next month

The live webcast is now underway.

Man that camera wobble on the web cam feed is freaky.

Reports are that they are having trouble getting telemetry from the island to SpaceX headquarters in California. They're not sure if they can launch with these communication problems.

Updates at http://spaceflightnow.com/falcon/f2/status.html

30 minutes to go. I'm (somewhat cautiously) predicting the payload will make it into orbit today.

Now set for 4:45

Fueling is complete

Is there actually a payload per se, or is it just an instrumented lump of something.

Doug

There are a couple of small NASA experimental payloads going up, which I believe will not separate from the rocket. One of the payloads involves some kind of communications transceiver test.

aborted at t- 1:02

I'll go over there with a box of matches next time. They're not saying words that would make me think of a 24 hour scrub or anything like that - perhaps they can recyle to the SB retract and have another hack at it, they're not stuck to a specific window with a test flight I guess.

I made a cup of Mocha to watch the launch with, came back from the kitchen "abort". Don't open your sachet of instant mocha till the rocket's launched. Lesson learnt.

Doug

Just before the abort, the first stage venting had stopped, but it was continuing to vent on the second stage. I wonder if they couldn't get a valve closed? No official word yet on what the problem is.

If it was something really minor I think they still can launch today.

SFN "SpaceX has time available to troubleshoot the issue and try the launch again -- so the flight has not been scrubbed for today."

They're going to look at it for another 10 minutes.

Don't know about you guys, but somewhere in the flow from that pad camera to my screen - there is a glitch that makes it wobble a little. There's some wind at the site, I can see trees moving - but there's also this whole image wobble that's a bit scarey as it makes the whole vehicle look like it's bending back and forth in the wind.

Doug

Helvick mentioned it earlier. Some of it is caused by compression and interpolation artifacts. Try reducing the size of your window. That seemed to work well for me.

Yes, its an odd sort of wobble. And it affects both of the cameras I've seen images from. It might be an electronic thing but I suspect that the cameras may be viewing the pad via mirrors (to protect the cameras) and the mirrors are flexing in the fairly stiff breeze. But this is probably rubbish speculation on my part! Difficult to ignore the wobble though -keep thinking the thing is going to fall over.
Rob

They're having a chat on the 'Anomaly Net' - sounds like something Hoagland would be on I think we'll get an answer on having another go soon.

And it's a scrub for the day.

Doug

Scrubbed....

New launch time set for 4pm California time today (Tues).

http://www.spacex.com/updates.php#demoflig...aunch_update_11

Anyone else having trouble getting the stream?

http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php

It hasn't started yet.

Stream's up now, because of the 65 min late launch time

Doug

Indeed, and I am watching it on my 56" HDTV! It's blurry as hell, but it's big!