Yes it's happening after all these years, the mission to the last planet!

And maybe to celebrate the confirmation of budget, NASA approval preparations and the fueling of the RTG (radioisotope thermoelectric generator), there is an updated web site at http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/

Launch will be January 2006 with arrival at the Pluto Charon system July 2015 (mark your calender!) and then on through the Kuiper belt during 2016-2020 and beyond.

20.8-centimeter telescope for 100m resolution at closest approach
IR/UV spectrometers
2 x 8GB data recorders
data rate: 768 bps (sic) to 70m DSN
465kg including fuel
$650m

336 days to launch

768 bps isnt too bad actually

given say an 8 hr DSN pass - that's 21.6 Mbits

One a day, for a week = 151 Mbits

Heck - 8 Gigabits.





Doug

Yeah, but in 2015 we'll be posting on a BBS where some 20-year old cracker will wonder why the thing wasn't launched with a 30 MB camera and 1GB/sec data transfer capabilities...after all, you can get it at any Best Buy!

...but will it survive a decade in space?
hey, most don't even work a decade on earth!

It is still touch and go whether NH will be launched in 2006 -- a final decision will be made on this in April. If it is delayed until 2007, the flight, without a Jupiter gravity assist, will take three years longer -- but as a compensation, NH will be more likely to have its supply of plutonium fuel (whose processing has been very seriously delayed by the Los Alamos security scandal) topped up enough to allow it to fly by one or more KBOs after Pluto. It is very much open to doubt whether it could operate long enough to reach another KBO after Pluto if it's launched in 2006, despite its shorter flight time.

Audio interview with Hew Horizons (NH) Principle Investigator, Alan Stern available here:

http://www.planetary.org/audio/pr20050214.html

Project update based on audio interview:

NH in final assembly stage: 5 out of 6 science instruments mounted on spacecraft
launch vehicle under contract
application for launch approval pending

launch window is two weeks long starting January 2006, launching in early part of the window means arrival in July 2015.

329 days till launch window opens

Attached is a picture of New Horizons in build from last month. Enjoy!

WOW - they're gonna need longer cables than that if they want to reach to Pluto!

Nice pic, thank you! - Where is the spacecraft being assembled?

Remember to send your name to Pluto

http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/ecard/sendName_ecard_content.html

New Horizons is being assembled at Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Lab. If you are not familiar with APL, it is where NEAR, CONTOUR, and MESSENGER were built, along with approx. 30 earth orbital missions, like TIMED, Transit, and MSX. By mid-summer the spacecraft is planned to be at Goddard for environmental testing.

Great news! thanks for the input Alan...didn't know PI's post on message boards

so, is everything going on schedule?

Well, PIs are just people as far as I can tell.

New Horizons has its challenges, like many missions, but the big picture is very promising. We just passed a major review at NASA HQ, and we have over 80% of the flight avionics on the spacecraft. Mission sims begin next month.

At the same time we are building NH, we are pressing for a backup mission, New Horizons 2 for launch in 2008-2009.

Alan, can you give an update on the RTG status ?

The RTG and the necessary fuel are both in good shape. Previous problems resolved.
All needed fuel is now ready. We expect 190 W or a tad more at Pluto in mid-2015.
The s/c requires ~165W, so there is a healthy margin. The launch approval process
has begun, and will take the remainder of the year to complete.

Why does bad news always make big headlines and the good news somehow just doesn't get mentioned ? They scare the hell out off you by telling telling New Horizons may fly late or not at all due to lack of plutonium, but once the problems are solved the press somehow keeps silent. Thanks for the update and making me sleep a little bit better tonight

'Good' News isnt sexy. If the US media is anything like the UK media - then they love talking a story up ( NH getting funding to go ahead ) then smashing it to pieces. They do it with sports stars, governmental projects, anything

And they'll never set the record straight when things pan out properly.

Doug

Recall the old adage "Never let the truth get in the way of a good story" :>

Welcome to our humble forum Alan, pull up a keyboard and make yourself comfortable

What great news, NH is all gassed up and raring to go! I've got so many questions I hardly know where to start.

Okay how about with these two:

Given the 190+tad Watts at Pluto, how far out will that take NH?

Does NH have a really minimal power mode that will allow very low data rates (seconds per bit perhaps) for super extended missions?

Certificate No. 1125

324 days to launch window

Short article on New Horizons at the Planetary Society website:

http://www.planetary.org/pluto_75/pluto_ne...ons_190205.html

Given the 190+tad Watts at Pluto, how far out will that take NH?

This depends on when we launch in the 2006 window or the backup 2007
window because the exit velocity varies with launch date. The basic answer
is that predicts show that we have sufficient power to run out to 2025, which
corresponds to ~50-60 AU if all goes well.

Does NH have a really minimal power mode that will allow very low data rates (seconds per bit perhaps) for super extended missions?

We have data rate capabilities down to 10 bps, but using them doesn't extend
the lifetime or range estimates above. That said, there may be some heroic
things one could do if all's well to extend further. We have't looked at that.
Our job is to keep our eye on the Pluto ball, and there's more than enough
to keep us busy with that.

About the 768 bit/sec datarate at Pluto: Is this what can be achieved with the current DSN or with planned upgrades to the DSN ? Because if it can be guaranteed with the current DSN, it's not unlikely that DSN will get better recievers in the coming 10 years that would allow for higher datarates

Yes, the 768 bps is for the current system-- 70 m antennas at a range of 33 AU.
If their are improvements in DSN that are compatable with our telecom design, we could take advantage of them. .. That aside, you might be interested to know that it looks like our actual as-tested telecom performance is 1.5-2x better than the 768 bps spec performance, which is of course good news-- for those of us interested in faster downlinks.

-Alan

Thank you for such fast and succinct replies Alan. It must be my turn now to ask the next question

I'm curious about NH's software and its level of autonomy but I've been unable to find any description of it other than it runs on Mongoose V R3000 processors. The ten year flight gives plenty of time to design powerful new heuristics to optimize data collection during encounters.

To what extent does the NH software process follow the Cassini code while you fly model?

The shortage of plutonium was caused by an alleged security problem at one of the labs. A couple of CDs with classified information on them went missing and everything stopped while they reviewed security protocols etc. I read recently that the CDs that were susposedly missing never existed and all the fuss was over an inventory problem.

It's unlikely that whatever is made public about highly classified labs is true and should be taken with a very small pinch of Uranium salt


323 days to opening of primary launch window

The Feb. 17 "Nature" has a news item on the revelation that the missing disks never existed -- and if it's a cover story, it's an oddly counterproductive one. According to the magazine, most of Los Alamos' scientists are in an absolute fury over all this, and some of them are quitting.

Aren't we all interested in faster downlinks ? When we got our first modem 1200 bps was considered fast. A lot of BBSes would only support 300 bps. Some were running on older hardware and would do 300/75 bps max. It took quite a while to download even one floppy to your 8088 box. Today my ADSL line got upgraded to 8192/1024 Kbps. Downloaded a 50 MB Mars panorama in about a minute. Imagine how long that would have taken to download on one of those 300 bps BSSes. Having memories of using 300 bps the logical conclusion is that I'm getting old

The autonomy software is a rule-based system being put in place pre-flight. We do not expect to upgrtade it unless bugs occur that are not revealed in the (extensive) ground testing.

IThe system is based on the autonomy engine APL did for MESSENGER, with some improvements.

Thanks for the details.

Here is a description of the APL rule based autonomy system: PDF file

Ten years is a very long time in the software universe, there may be other better approaches such as neural networks available by 2015. To make the most intelligent use of spacecraft resources during encounter is it possible to significantly enhance the software?

It's not about doing what is best in terms of systems efficiency, it's about minimizing risk. The saying we use is that "better is the enemy of good enough." There is also that pesky detail of having limited budgets, so aerospace geeks and PIs love to say,
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Enough said.

"Better is the enemy of good enough" yes I've heard that one before. Apparently it was the motto hung on the wall of Admiral Sergei Gorshkov, father and architect of the modern Soviet Navy, to remind him of the relative quality of the US and Soviet fleets.

Clearly in a project like NH success is the only real measure and that means the
unfailing execution of the baseline mission. Yet as technology advances there is a pattern of significantly reducing risk either by adding more complexity or by using new approaches. The test test test method is limited by the time and resources available and constrained by the design.

"He who knows that enough is enough will always have enough" - Lao Tsu

In my experience of writing software, the main things that makes for robustness are good design, good developers, and testing, testing, and more testing. The increasing use of techniques like unit and functional testing in the commercial environments I work in is testament to this. And remember that robustness for a spacecraft is orders of magnitude harder than for anything on Earth. You can't push a reset button if it all goes wrong. (The fact that JPL got Spirit back after the flash filesystem cock-up is one of the things that has impressed me the most about the technology on the MERs).

I'm not an expert in neural networks, but a good friend of mine did his PhD on them, and from what he tells me they would be a very bad choice for spacecraft. They are impossible to debug, and often are not doing what you think they are.

This (http://neil.fraser.name/writing/tank/) is a famous neural network story. It may be apocryphal, but I'm told it gives a flavour of the kind of problems you can end up with.

Chris

For those trying to get their bearings - we're looking at the side onto which the RTG will be mounted. the SWAP instrument is sticking out on the right by the bunnysuited engineers. ALICE and RALPH are sort of hidden round the corner on the left - and above SWAP on the right just under the HGA is PEPSSI

I hereby award NH with the Acronyms-of-the-Year award

Doug

What spacecraft stabilization will be used during cruise phase? Will it be spin-stabilized? If yes, is there any chance of gathering data relevant to the Pioneer Anomaly investigation?

Borek

Well - attitude is all done with thrusters (no reac. wheels) , so I guess it'll be spin stab for much of the cruise - despinning for observations as and when appropriate - Alan will fill us in I'm sure

Doug

Yes, we spin most of cruise, stopping only rarely. It costs fuel that we want to hoard for encounters and KBO DeltaV. And yes, our radio science team hopes to look for
the Pioneer anaomaly. Contact Len Tyler or Ivan Linscott at Stanford.

-Alan

For those interested in how such things are done now here is a link to an index of the draft environmental impact statement for NH.

For those interested, various interesting information aboiut New Horizons can be found at www.boulder.swri.edu/pkb

And here is another nice image some may wish to download.

Dr. Stern, what, if any, flyby science are you planning to do at Jupiter, assuming that there is a Jupiter flyby?

Extensive Jupiter system science is planned-- a great deal focus on meteoroligical
inviestigations of Jupiter using IR imaging spectroscopy. There is also a good bit of
satellite imaging and spectroscopy, stellar occulations of Jupiter's atmosphere, dust studies in the Jovian system, and a magnetospheric tail explortation that is wholly unique becaue NH will fly down the tail hundreds of AU as it exists toward Pluto-Charon.
One dirty little secret of NH: We'll return far more bits from Jupiter than Pluto,
largely becasue we can, given the closer range.

We also plan to use Jupiter as a cal target and as ops practice on the way to Pluto.
(and we just found a Centaur to study-- albeit from long range, in 2010-- 2002 GO).

-Alan Stern

I have read that closest approach won't be too far outside the orbit of Callisto. Will Callisto actually be nearby. Also, with its telescopic capability, what kind of resolution will New Horizons be able to get on the Galileans?

To add to that, how will that compare with Galileo and Voyager images? Have the parts of Callisto or the other Galileans that could be imaged at a high resolution already been imaged at such a resolution by Galileo or will they be new areas?

All this depends on which day in Jan 2006 we launch, which in turn ocrresponds to which day in 2007 we arrive at Jupiter. Callisto and other moons way be close, or may be far--- depending on when we arrive. What we can say for sure-- now in 2005-- is this:
the cloest approach of NH to Jupiter will be almost 4 times closer than Cassini, i.e., at about 38 Rj.

-Alan Stern

Assuming there are no delays from Jan 2006, what kind of resolution could LORRI get for Io? (I figure it won't vary nearly as much as Callisto no matter where it is, unless it is behind Jupiter at closest approach)

Thanks,

Ted

I attended the 2003 DPS meeting -- and, specifically, the special session on science goals for NH's Jupiter flyby. The impression I got is that the most interesting aspect of that flyby will be, not its imaging of the moons, but its near-IR spectra of them -- which will be much better than those from either Galileo or Cassini (better instrument than the former; much closer than the latter), and may well provide us with very interesting new data on their surface compositions.

By "much better spectra", of course I mean in spectral resolution -- obviously they'll be pretty much whole-disk spectra, unlike Galileo's; but their spectral resolution will be so much better that they have a good chnce of revealing new surface constituents.

The LORRI imager's resolution on Io, depending on where it is in its orbit will be between roughly 12 and 15 km per pixel at closest approach.

That should be good to look for changes at smaller scales than can be seen from earth since I32

How about the resolution it will get on Jupiter ? Will it beat this splendid mosaic made by Cassini:

http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpeg/PIA04866.jpg

Oh, yes -- although, since NH's bit rate will be far lower than Cassini's, it won't make nearly as MANY mosaics of Jupiter.