A nice summing up of the current state of india's Mars orbiter project by Emily Lakdawalla:
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakda...aan-update.htmlFor what it's worth, I think that, although the mission development timeframe does seem awfully short, there are also
some reasons to be optimistic:
1. There are indications, eg the delivery of the spacecraft structure, that work on the project began long before the formal
announcement of the mission.
2. Such a fast schedule is not unheard of. The Mariner 9 mission, the US's first Mars orbiter,
was launched in May 1971, 2.5 yr after the formal project start in November 1968. One could argue
that, with a Moon orbiter under its belt, India is in a similar stage in its planetary programme.
3. The technical complexity of the mission, although formidable in absolute terms (it is, after all, a mission to Mars) is
actually quite modest as planetary missions go. The goal is to attain a highly elliptical orbit around Mars and conduct
observations of the planet from this orbit. The one critical maneuvre of the mission (assuming that is is dispatched
from Earth without problems) is a well-timed engine burn near closest approach to the planet on the first pass.
There is no probe to land, no major orbit changes, rendezvous with either one of the moons or sample return.
This is no Phobos-Grunt, more like a Mars Express sans Beagle 2.
So, I would say that there is better than a 50-50 chance of it getting to where it wants to go. Of course, in the real world
it is impossible to fly, say, 10,000 identical missions to see what the actual probability of success is (that's why we have
bayesian statistics, by the way
) but I remain cautiously optimistic about this one.
Tolis.