QUOTE
Last M-5 rocket launch leaves successor up in air
The Yomiuri Shimbun
The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency on Saturday successfully launched the M-5 No. 7 rocket from the Uchinoura Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture, sending the solar observation satellite Solar B into orbit as scheduled.
The M-5 rocket will now be retired from service. With its last successful launch, the M-5 leaves a record of six successes and one failure since the M-5 No. 1 launch in February 1997. For a new rocket, this record is quite acceptable.
Looking back, Japan's solid-fuel rockets date back to 1955's pencil rocket. Continuing the tradition, the M-5 is among the world's largest rockets of its kind, with one of the best performance levels in the world.
There are many who lament the retirement of the M-5 rocket. However, the decision is inevitable if we consider the problems associated with the rocket.
Costly launch
Its main disadvantage is that it is too expensive. One launch costs about \8 billion. If a U.S. liquid-fuel rocket were used as a launch vehicle for the same satellite, the cost would be halved. The per-payload cost is five times that of Japan's mainstay rocket, the H-2A, which also uses liquid fuel.
In terms of performance, it has been pointed out that the M-5 rocket has trouble with significant vibrations. There have been worries over possible adverse effects on precision devices mounted on satellites and probes carried by the rocket.
The M-5 was first developed by the former Education Ministry's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), which focused on space exploration. Japan only had small solid-fuel rockets until 1990, when development of the M-5 started, and the government was unable to handle major programs, such as planetary exploration.
Around the same time, the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of the former Science and Technology Agency, which focused on satellites for practical use, had been developing the H-2, the predecessor of the current H-2A rocket.
The hierarchical administrative system prevented ISAS from studying the use of the H-2 rocket.
No comprehensive policy
The situation changed, however, when the two organizations merged into JAXA. After opting to use the H-2A for planetary exploration, the government this summer decided to retire the M-5.
Yet, the government does not have a comprehensive policy for rocket development after the M-5.
It has a program to develop a rocket smaller than the M-5, but has not decided yet on its specific performance duties, launching method or even what kind of satellite it will launch.
ISAS and NASDA jointly developed the solid-fuel J-1 rocket 10 years ago, but the project was aborted due to its high costs.
As a project separate from JAXA, the liquid-fuel GX rocket for medium-sized satellites has been under joint development by the government and the private sector. But the rocket's capabilities overlap that of the M-5's replacement. What should the government do to balance the use of these two types of rockets?
In addition, the GX rocket's development has been mired in technological problems.
With the retirement of the M-5, the H-2A will be Japan's only rocket for a while. There is even a risk that the country's space development will stop entirely if the H-2A develops serious problems.
Solid-fuel technology, which has been cultured by past development projects up to the M-5, likely will be lost if no follow-up research is carried out. The government has no time for hesitation in deciding which way to go.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 24, 2006)
On the other joint state-private project, the QZSS (Quazi Zenith Satellite System) the private side pulled out, and Jaxa is moving alone now. Launch of the first satellite is in 2009 now. The second and third satellite is delayed. (Also they want to test the first one in orbit so ... ). (There was a report in the yomiuri some months ago)
I heard that the chances that the private sector moves out of the GX, too exists. This would mean that the state will finish it (aka pays the full development), and later if it is successfull the private side takes over again.