Since the VSE came out a few years back, I've seen occasional references to the need of having precursor missions to Mars seperate from the robotic exploration program to test such technology as in-situ resource utilization, long term radiation levels, etc. Has anyone heard any more concrete plans for such missions? I've not yet seen anything in NASAs budget that seems to be working in that direction (besides some Earth-based research).

I think all VSE stuff relating to Mars has been 'postponed indefinitely' now, so there's nothing in NASA's budget for precursors etc.

Before it was dropped a few interesting things were published - try googling for them.

Here is a good pdf from 18 months ago on the subject.

James

Awesome, thanks James. I remember seeing that briefing before now that you've refreshed my memory. Lots of good info.

Hopefully this progress and line of thinking won't be lost and force NASA to start from scratch again next decade. Of course, the whole VSE could be cancelled if an anti-space politician gets in office in 08.

"Of course, the whole VSE could be cancelled if an anti-space politician gets in office in 08."

People do say this, but you have to wonder what would replace it. No president is likely to abandon human space flight altogether - or certainly no Congress to approve cancellation. Even Nixon couldn't quite bring himself to do it. And costly as it is, it's such a small fraction of the federal budget that cancelling it outright doesn't achieve very much. So what's left? The status quo doesn't satisfy anybody. I think the Vision might be modified, but it's not likely to be seriously threatened.

Phil

We've seen so many ups and downs, so many changes. It's good to have a vision even very imperfect, even science treatening. That's the most important even if the price is high for science for the next 4-5 years. Start something that no president will change dramaticaly. I feel, from Europe, that most of US politicians agree on the direction, and may be on the vision. I've seen Neil's step live a long long time ago and now, I know more or less when I'll see the come back to the moon. That's very inspiring and Unmanned precursors belong to the deal.

What I think could happen is that the VSE has the goal dates for a Moon landing removed and forces NASA to turn the Orion into an ISS transport with nebulous possibilities for future travel to the Moon and Mars. This hypothetical politician would say, "Why waste the ISS after spending upteen billions to construct it?. Let's get all the good science (all scientists roll eyes) out of it we can and not abandon it to a complicated, costly Moon project."

As for the budget benefits of cancelling it, NASA always seems to come under the gun for cuts because their programs have such high-visibility among Congress and the public. This high-visibility is a strength and liability for those in favor of sustainable NASA funding.

That make sense to consider such an hypothesis. But, as you know, this is a "pay as you go" project so, if we can start Aries 5 (work is already in progress), then 3rd stage escape/stage, Lunar module, they will be no turn around. This is one possible reason Nasa is pushing so hard to implement VSE, and if (big IF) they can build Orion cheaper (or faster with same price) than scheduled (it's what I read), Nasa will get a new reputation before Congres and THIS could change the whole picture. I know, I'm an optimistic guy

I think it would certainly take a pretty radical shift in American politics and national stature, as Phil mentioned, for the VSE to be entirely cancelled outright. I think that the replacement for the Shuttle will get built, but I'm concerned about the Moon and Mars missions. I'm worried that 10 years of effort will result in two new boosters (although I imagine Ares 5 could be nearer to the chopping block if the Moon missions are delayed/cancelled) and an ISS transport.

I've got my share of concerns about the current Griffin - VSE project, but I've also got more hopes for it than all the other abortive attempts at new spaceflight initiatives of the last 20 years. Anyone remember the National Spaceplane? Or how about Venture Star? Or the Orbital Spaceplane?

Of all of those, the Orbital Spaceplane at least was technically feasable, but it didn't really lend itself too well to anything other than Earth orbital flights.

While Orion is rather short on imagination, at least it is long on versatility. It can do either ISS resupply, or Lunar flights. In fact, the entire VSE frame work has a lot more versatility to it than the Shuttle did. Basically the shuttle was, well... the Shuttle. After 25 years of operations it still does exactly what it started out doing.... up, down, up, down... with fixed payload limits in both size and weight.

Now, with VSE we essentially get 4 new vehicles. Two new boosters, and two new manned ships. The Ares V doesn't have to only lift lunar payloads, it can lift heavy payloads of any type. The LSAM descent stage can be modified to carry something other than the crew module (cargo, habitat, whatever).
When using the Ares 1, the Orion service module can be fitted with a pressurized payload cannister and take unmanned cargo to the station (already deleted for budgetary reasons, but easy enough to re-instate later). So we end up with an expandable and more versatile system than if we were building Shuttle-2.

Admittedly all of this takes money, and a lot of it. But in the case of the Shuttle program, everytime you had to spend a couple billion on an upgrade, you got ...uh... a slightly higher tech version of the shuttle. Anytime you develope a new piece of this system, you get a truely new capability.

So while I've got my doubts that this is going to be smooth sailing, at least there is enough flexability in the approach that there are a lot of choices on how to move forward. And with the Russians and ESA collaborating on ACTS ( think Soyuz-on-steroids ) I see little chance of Orion being completely canceled, no matter who is President.