Space in urgent need of cleaning
Rising debris bound to cause catastrophic crashes.
More than 9,000 man-made objects currently orbit the Earth, and about two-thirds of those are debris. This includes derelict satellites, spent rockets and fragments of metal from explosions. With an estimated 5,000 tonnes of stuff flying around up there, its not surprising that US Space Command tries to track everything bigger than 10 centimetres, the size thought to present a fatal risk to spacecraft.
Liou and his colleague Nicholas Johnson used a computer model called LEGEND to predict what would happen to that space junk in the next 200 years, assuming that all space launches were halted in December 2004. That provides a 'best-case scenario', explains Liou; in reality, more and more metal is being shot into space each year.
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The duo tracked fragments in low Earth orbit, which spans from 200 to 2,000 kilometres above the Earth's surface. Their simulation shows that without further space shots, the debris tally is stable until about 2055. But after that, the number of dangerous objects begins to rise again, as pieces of junk collide with each other and break up into smaller, yet still potentially fatal fragments.
Three such debris collisions are known to have happened since 1991 alone. The most recent, in January 2005, was between parts of a 31-year-old US rocket and a Chinese CZ-4 launch vehicle that exploded in March 2000.
"We only have one space," says Liou. "If we don't protect the space environment we might get to a stage where we can't launch satellites." The results are reported in this week's Science1.
http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060116/full/060116-9.html