It's encouraging to see officialy mentioned words like "Partway to 'Victoria' "...
Maybe there's still a chance to get there...I surelly hope so!

Yes that caught my eye and hope too !!!

At the rate Oppy's going it will never make it to Victoria Crater. It's time to do some serious driving. This 10 meters a day stuff is crazy.

A manned mission to Mars would have had astronauts exploring Victoria within two weeks.

Hi Buck, I think a manned mission to Mars would not yet have explored Victoria Crater, if both projects started at the same time and had the same budgets. The men would still be in simulators here on Earth.

I do agree that it seems frustrating the pace at which Opportunity is going these days. The mechanical difficulties its had lately are a big part of it.

From Erebus tu Victoria, the 90% of the way, Oppy can travel safely over outcrops and some sand ripple crossing. The next sand land would reach to few hundred meters (400) before from the Victoria Crater in a negative slope. However the total distance between Erebus and Victoria craters would be around 2,300 meters.

If Oppy, travels witout its IDD workable, would travel at least 20 meters per day (pessimist) and 40 meters per day (optimist) in average, then, nice pessimist pronostic (otherwise, Oppy would be sleeping forever) it would take 115 days (3-4 months). The optimist pronostic, the time would be shorter to 57.5 days (2-3 months). So, if she is strong and smart enough would be able to see the Victoria crater between March and April 2006.

Rodolfo

A quick estimate of the average speed of Oppy since we first ran into Purgatory dune/ripple is: slightly more than 7 meter per sol and dropping (as we are standing still). And that is not the straight line speed, which is much less of course.

IMHO these rovers are slow (as Steve called it) but that is when they are in perfect working order. When things go wrong everything comes to a grinding halt. Of course this is mainly the nature of the game, debugging over galactic distances is pretty tough!
But maybe a next rover could/should be equipped with more diagnostic features.

Good detail. Then I should be more pessimist about the future transverse progress of rovers. The last article I have read about MSL is that it is capable to drive up to 20 km in one Mars' year instead of above than 5 km of MER.

I have seen many persons writting "IMHO". Shall anyone tell us what does this mean. I know the meaning of BTW : "By the Way" but I am half guessing about IMHO: I mean...???

Rodolfo

In My Humble Opinion

If you see an unfamiliar acronym on the Internet, try going to Google and typing "IMHO means"... you'll get your answer 90% of the time.

AKA JFGI

JFGI

A good site for acronyms --

http://www.acronymfinder.com/

Its odd, after the spectacular successes of the current mission to invoke what a manned mission could have done. A manned mission to Mars would not be possible in our lifetimes. With all their faults and frustrations, robots are the way to explore the Solar system.

Actually I sympathize with Buck Galaxy's comment. If you ignore for a moment the fact that we can't get humans to Mars yet, it's true that as they have been marketed -- robotic geologists with hand lenses and hammers, blah blah blah -- the rovers have done in two years what human geologists operating on Earth could have done in a few weeks. Many of the geologists working in the daily operations of the mission are trained as (Earth) field geologists and have done their time in the field with pack, hand lens, hammer, camera, map, and colored pencils. Much as they love working with the rovers, I am sure there are moments of frustration where they wish they could just go to Mars and crack the a rock open with a hammer and take a look and then get on with the danged traverse already! No disrespect meant to Spirit and Opportunity. They can do things that no human can possibly do, this year (or this decade, or perhaps even this century, who knows). But that doesn't make the pace any less frustrating sometimes!

--Emily

I apologize for wandering even further off topic. Is there any wonder why Google's stock price has more than quadrupled the IPO closing price so quickly? For definitions and acronyms, my first choice is using something like "define:imho" on Google.


...but Google's define function is not so helpful for "jfgi." That acronym will "come in handy.".


That link was duly noted and bookmarked.

...damn, my original plan was to simply say "go robots." How did I manage to get knocked so far off topic?

Yeah.
Besides: the fact that our precious robots can drive, doesn't mean that that's their main purpose. This small drives of 10 meters would have been the main wish back in the 70's, with Vikings completely immobile, looking around, not able to take a closer look to ANYTHING around them. We got spoiled with these miles of driving. Operating MER is about finding clues for the genesis of the features we see around them. It's always a delicate equilibrium between wanting to go on (before they brake down) to explore new terrain, and take a really good look at what they're in today. Better to understand a part of the puzzle thoroughly, than looking around superficially to feed the hunger for pretty views. Don't get me wrong: I'd absolutely love the view of Victoria, and i am in good confidence that eventually,'Oppy will get there before she dies.....but:
I think the team does a hell of a good job in squeezing out the max. of the best and the most sophisticated surface robots ever flown ! That has nothing to do with human exploration on the spot. It's a completely different subject, and besides: a dream that probably will not come true to witness for most forum members in their lifetimes.

Maybe we should calculate what amount of money would need to be spent on a single human mission to Mars...Lets say 50 billion dollars.
Now let’s see MER’s price tag of some $800 million and future MSL’s price tag of some $1billion.
I’m afraid even to imagine how nice it would be to have 63 MERs or 50 MSLs at the same time on many different places on Mars.
Manned mission to Mars would be just to expensive…and just imagine on how many places we could have send probes, landers, orbiters for price of that BLACK HOLE called ISS…

I agree with you entirely, with the exception of one point. You are underestimating the cost of a manned mission to Mars, in my opinion, by at least a factor of ten.

ed

A manned mission to Mars would indeed have to be expensive, but I would consider it a very worthwhile long-term investment. Even 'merely' going to the Moon required the invention and refinement of new technology that we are just now capitalizing upon (fuel cells immediately spring to mind). I can only imagine what we would gain by even just attempting to send people to Mars.

The main barrier that I can foresee is the large risk to the would-be astronauts. I wouldn't be surprised if people die enroute after several months, or on the surface, much less on the launch pad or getting out of Earth orbit.. That sort of thing really seems to damp public enthusiasm, even though anyone involved with such a project has to know just how risky it is (if they don't they're too dumb to be involved in the first place).

In this case I think any short-term costs would be more than offset by the long-term benefits, and look at the US, we've been in massive debt for years and nobody seems to care..

I do think that even if taxpayer money is never used to fund a manned mission to Mars that private industry will eventually fund a mission (with endless legal documents to absolve them of any responsibility for inevitable deaths/injuries) because something or other will crop up to make it unavoidably lucrative. The New World used to be 'too far away' to be useful as a money-making venture, and then people found gold, cotton, and tobacco, and our transportation systems became faster and more efficient, and what do you know, the New World suddenly became the main economic powerhouse of the planet..

None of these posts have ANYTHING to do with Route Maps....

moving stuff in here

Since the 800 million bought two MERs, wouldn't that be 126 rovers?

My mistake...but you got the point...
You'r right....
I was carried away on my dreamboat...
"When my dreaboat comes home..."

Moving this message from another topic:

Yes there is good science here, but what geologist would want to spend weeks and weeks investigating a 5 foot outcrop in a streambed in Kansas, cataloging every layer, depicting every minute detail of every ancient thunderstorm, when instead, he could walk down the Grand Canyon and capture an understanding of a much bigger picture. He could find out what happened over eons of time, not just one miniscule piece of time, and realize a great deal of basic knowledge of the past that can serve as a structure for future discoveries.

There is limited time. There is not enough time to investigate everything to the nth level of detail. You have to perform triage and decide where you are most likely to find wholy new things that could revolutionize your understanding -- and where you will only likely find more of what you have already seen. To do otherwise is an irresponsible use of a once-in-a-lifetime Opportunity.

If the team I was working on three years ago building the Rover avionics had this same mindset of spending unlimited time looking at every detail -- for example if we had spent all of our time on making sure the labeling of the electronics boards was just perfect, or looking at each wire and trace for the slightest scratch, there would be no Rovers on Mars now.

I want the product of our labors to be used to find new discoveries. We have found much so far, but we are unlikely to find anything Mars-shaking at Erebus.

Here is the plan: Waste not one day. See if the arm can be made to work. Either way, drive to the Mogollon outcrop. Spend a few days there just to see if there is anything new. Climb out and head for Victoria. If you see anything _really_ new on the way stop for a couple of days. Explore Victoria as much as possible. Add 100 more feet to the Endurance stratigraphy.

Yes there is risk that we will fail to reach Victoria. Then we have nothing except drive images to the point where we stop. But we have to take the risk. To do otherwise is a waste of a chance to see back in time on Mars.

I am reminded of a quote from General Patton (revised): "What did you do with the great Opportunity Mars Rover, Grandpa? Well, we shoveled sh*t in Erebus."

Scott

I agree, i think the controllers should get loose by now. The publicity value of getting that shot from the Victoria is probably much more beneficial than spending 100 sols in this spot, trying to get the IDD work and crying how much science is lost, when there probably even isnt that much. Nice slabs and all, but it looks like either the team does not believe Oppy will make it to Victoria, or they are overconfident about its longevity.

IMO the MER rovers are much more than hard science, i think the geologists have gotten enough by now.

You're making the assumption that the rover is in a fit state to drive - with the IDD not properly parked, and not in a contingency deployed position, any driving would risk damaging the IDD irreperably.

The same thing happened at Purgatory. Cries of "get moving". When actually - they took the right course of action...do no harm.

These anaologies of earth based geology dont really suit the situation.

Perhaps they could just set off, and then in 150 sols time, half way to Victoria, get stuck with a mechanical failure in the middle of no-mans-land with nothing to look at but dunes.

Perhaps they could set off, then driving over some rock, the idd snaps off because they didnt park it properly.

Perhaps they could stay where they are till they understand the IDD situation fully, do whatever needs to be done, take the time that needs to be taken to understand, investigate and if possible, fix the situation - and then do the science here where we know there are some interesting features and THEN set off to Victoria.

I dont believe time is the limiting factor for rover lifespan, I think usage is. The rover will either manage to cover another 4 km, or it wont. I dont think being parked here for a few weeks will change that in any way.

Doug

A day spent diagnosing problems so that you can fix them is not a waste, regardless of whether you move or not.

Also if they are going to drive with the IDD unstowed they will have to rewrite parts of the software and then test it to be sure the changes have no unforeseen side-effects.
Even small changes in flight-control software (which this really is) take a LOT of time to validate.

A nice acronym for today: RTFM

tty

I think the "earth-based" analogy is very apropos. At Victoria, based on orbital imagery, you should be able to see deeper layers than anywhere around Erebus. This has the potential for greatly adding to our store of knowledge. Sitting around Erebus taking more pancam shots does not.

Time itself is a limiting factor. With the thermal cycles, there will soon be electronics failures. How soon, I do not know -- but I ran one of these MER boards (engineering unit) for 200 cycles and began to see some physical degradation in solder joints, though electrically they were still fine.

If the Rover team is going by your thoughts, we need to face the fact that Opportunity will never get to Victoria, and we've pretty much discovered everything that we will discover on this mission.

Of course we need to understand the IDD situation first. That was part of the plan I mentioned.

It is important to note that the terrain on the way to Victoria appears identical to Erebus anyway.

So do you want to take a chance at maybe getting 100 more feet of stratigraphy and race to Victoria? Or just pick around here looking at the same stuff until Rover Death?

Do not waste a day.

Scott

Holy Cow! Let's calm down. These guys have done a fantasitic job of get great science out of these two vehicles. Now you guys know better than them how serious the situation is?

I don't think so.

We only have the least bit of knowledge of what is going on. They are highly trained professionals. They are seasoned. They have demonstrated the capability to make the hard choices and make them correctly. I'm behind them 100 percent. Don't you folks have any loyalty to the team? You know they read this site. (Or at least hope they do.) I for one appreciate all the great work and believe they are doing the right thing.

ed

Does anyone care the a great discovery may sit at Opportunity's feet.

Time is not a limiting factor right now as such. Mechanical failure is the issue. The IDD may or may not have "failed" but it is just one of many mechanical components, any one of which may fail at any time. The point was made that this is like driving a car for 70000 miles without a service when the service interval is 10000 miles. That't the stage that the clutch begins to fail, the airbags need to be replaced, the windscreen probably has been replaced, the shocks might need attention ....etc.

Oppy is not going to risk anything by hanging around at Erebus until everyone is confident about what to do next. Time will not kill this baby, mechanical wear or a dodgy dune will. Power is no longer an immediate concern. There are times when patience is a virtue, right now I'm definitely of the opinion that this is one of those.

Here, Here.

So far they have done exactly what I would have expected and hoped they would do in a situation like this. The IDD is a very important piece of the rover, especially on Oppy given such fine layering and that the RAT still works. The top priorities right now must be to:

1) make sure they don't make the problem worse - driving without the arm properly stowed could do that.
2) Find the problem and identify the best solution - fix it, try to extend it into a useful position, try and stow it.

Only then can we get on with other things like driving.

Up to now, I still don't now about the Oppy IDD position. How tall is the lowest point of IDD?

When the IDD is healthy, its arm is retracted fully and higher than the rover floor and ready to go. So the software is programmed to know about these measures from the surface to the IDD lowest point and also from the front to IDD fartest point. Now, the software must change to adapt to the new measurements in order to integrate with the software of hazward avoidance system.

Another point. the worries are that the next Mars' equinox is June 25, 2006 (aphelion) click here to see Heavens-above planetary summary. The solar power will be at the lowest point. Then if Oppy start to drive now in a reasonable 20 meters per day to transverse 2.3 km, this will take 230 days, that would be within 7 months and three weeks. This mean that the Oppy would arrive at Victoria crater by at the end of July.

It is very dramatic. Maybe, the Oppy would be dragging very slow its last days approaching to Victoria crater, perhaps, between July-August 2006.

Now, the other problem, I remember that NASA has already extended the budget until April 2006 (Not sure). I think that NASA might re-evaluate the situation at that time to see whether is worth to extend the budget or not. The NASA budget is already tight. So I am going to be thinking that the probablity that Oppy reaches to Victoria Crater would be less than 50%.

Rodolfo

Well Emily, that is a very, very big IF to ignore. But if I could ignore it, I would imagine that some might lament that we couldn’t take along a backhoe and dump truck to dig down into layers, or well drilling equipment to get down to deep layers. I think there is no use in longing after unrealistic goals. Especially because it is just that kind of thinking that causes NASA to siphon so much of its budget into unrealistic manned space exploration. If only that money were spent on robots and real science we would be able to saturate Mars with robots, including sample return missions so that human geologists could crack open Mars rocks on Earth. I would imagine that the MER geologists, being scientists, must surely be more frustrated at NASA's low spending on science. Finally, if a major objective of Mars exploration is to look for extant or extinct, extraterrestrial life, can we seriously think that our microbe-ridden bodies could be sent to Mars without contaminating it?

I have no intention of denigrating the Rover team. They have done a great job, and I greatly appreciate it. That one chart showing the history of sedimentation discovered at Endurance is worth the entire mission.

I just think it is very important to see the Victoria strata and try to push our understanding back a few eons. While there may be great discoveries at our feet here in Erebus, the likelihood is that there is not.

Wouldn't you hate to have this mission end with no knowledge of earlier epochs that what we saw at Burns Cliff?

BTW, that pile of dark material is likely ejecta consisting of Victoria's version of Vishnu Schist.

Scott

Marcel, good pointing.
The unmanned rover has made the following progress:

1) Viking --> Arrives at Mars and stay only, see around with color and a shovel with laboratory chamber.
2) MER -> Arrives at Mars and is capable to transverse, see around with color, smell (spectrometer, x-ray and Mousbauer) and chew stones with its RAT.
3) MSL -> Arrives at Mars and is capable for everything of MER but with better smelling capability and able to shovel or excavate and put anything into the laboratory chamber. However it has no arms to hammer and pick up the stone in order to test its for the consistency, it has no drill and it is deaf (no hear sound).

Hence, an efficient geologist must have all thing I have mentioned for the MSL. Hence, the time spent on a interesting geologist place would be much improved if the rover geologist is like an human geologist.

Rodolfo

Sure, but then I'd hate to have an end of mission period!

However Oppy may or may not get to Victoria whether we race off now or not, it's still a long way away. I'd rather see Oppy die on the way to Victoria while collecting lots of useful data than die while racing to get there ignoring all targets in between. Like always, the MER team have to work with the assumption that the rovers may not wake up tommorrow. Putting all our scientific eggs in one distant crater is risky and silly.

There is going to be lots to see in the etched terrain and I hope that there is enough life lefted in the IDD to get it into a useful position to look at it. If the best chance of getting that is to wait here a few more weeks while the best method is worked out, then that's what must be done. The IDD is way to important to give up on so quickly.

James